Belief merging and revision under social influence: An explanation for the volatility clustering puzzle

This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data

Belief merging and revision under social influence: An explanation for the volatility clustering puzzle

Author Info

Siddiqi, Hammad

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Hammad A. Siddiqi

Abstract

A share price in a stock market can be thought of as arising out of an aggregation procedure. The price of a stock aggregates many individual beliefs into a collective one, the collective will of the market, so to speak. How does this aggregation come about? And is this aggregation fair in the sense that it correctly reflects the value? Furthermore,in the context of a stock market, it becomes immediately clear that belief merging cannot be separated from belief revision since investors in the market have a direct stake in what others think and clearly find it optimal to revise their beliefs in the light of the information about what others believe. We show that if investors are revising their beliefs not only after receiving new exogenous information but also after their social interactions with other investors and these revised beliefs are getting merged to generate the stock price under the accepted principles of finance (no arbitrage) then the resulting price dynamics explain a long standing puzzle in finance, the volatility clustering puzzle.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

Publisher Info
Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 657.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: Aug 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:657

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Schackstr. 4, D-80539 Munich, Germany
Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2219
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-3900
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2006-11-12 (All new papers)
NEP-CDM-2006-11-12 (Collective Decision-Making)
NEP-SOC-2006-11-12 (Social Norms & Social Capital)

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He, 2001. "Asset Price and Wealth Dynamics Under Heterogeneous Expectations," Research Paper Series 56, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Xue-Zhong (Tony) He & Carl Chiarella, 2001. "Asset Price and Wealth Dynamics under Heterogeneous Expectations," CeNDEF Workshop Papers, January 2001 5A.2, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
Eugene Kandel & Ben-Zion Zilberfarb, 1999. "Differential Interpretation Of Information In Inflation Forecasts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(2), pages 217-226, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Xue-Zhong He & Carl Chiarella, 1999. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset-Pricing Model," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 223, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Carl Chiarella & Tony He, 1999. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risks and Learning in a Simple Asset Pricing Model," Research Paper Series 18, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
- Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong, 2002. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset Pricing Model," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 95-132, February. [Downloadable!]
Matthew Rabin., 2000. "Risk Aversion and Expected-Utility Theory: A Calibration Theorem," Economics Working Papers E00-279, University of California at Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
Gaunersdorfer, A. & Hommes, C.H. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2000. "Bifurcation Routes to Volatility Clustering," CeNDEF Working Papers 00-04, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
Other versions:
- Andrea Gaunersdorfer & Cars Hommes & Florian O.O. Wagener, 2001. "Bifurcation Routes to Volatility Clustering," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-015/1, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
Durlauf, Steven N, 1993. "Nonergodic Economic Growth," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 60(2), pages 349-66, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Steven N. Durlauf, 1991. "Nonergodic Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 3719, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Ellison, Glenn & Fudenberg, Drew, 1993. "Rules of Thumb for Social Learning," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(4), pages 612-43, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- ELLISON, Glenn & FUDENBERG, Drew, 1992. "Rules of Thumb for Social Learning," IDEI Working Papers 17, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
- Allison, G. & Fudenberg, D., 1992. "Rules of Thumb for Social Learning," Working papers 92-12, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
Lux, T., and M. Marchesi, . "Scaling and Criticality in a Stochastic Multi-Agent Model of a Financial Market," Discussion Paper Serie B 438, University of Bonn, Germany, revised Jul 1998.
Robert Engle, 2004. "Risk and Volatility: Econometric Models and Financial Practice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(3), pages 405-420, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Engle III, Robert F., 2003. "Risk and Volatility: Econometric Models and Financial Practice," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2003-4, Nobel Prize Committee. [Downloadable!]
Robert Engle, 2001. "GARCH 101: The Use of ARCH/GARCH Models in Applied Econometrics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 157-168, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Kandel, Eugene & Pearson, Neil D, 1995. "Differential Interpretation of Public Signals and Trade in Speculative Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 831-72, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Rubinstein, Ariel, 1993. "On Price Recognition and Computational Complexity in a Monopolistic Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(3), pages 473-84, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Rubenstein, A., 1991. "On Price Recognition and Computational Complexity in a Monopolistic Model," Papers 35-91, Tel Aviv.
Farmer, J. Doyne & Joshi, Shareen, 2002. "The price dynamics of common trading strategies," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 149-171, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Matthew Rabin, 2000. "Risk Aversion and Expected-Utility Theory: A Calibration Theorem," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1281-1292, September.
Matthew Rabin, 2000. "Risk Aversion and Expected-Utility Theory: A Calibration Theorem," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series 1034, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? Cannot find something on IDEAS? Encourage the publisher to index it! Instructions.

This page was last updated on 2008-7-26.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.