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Stochastic Growth in the United States and Euro Area

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  • Peter N. Ireland

Abstract

This paper estimates, using data from the United States and Euro Area, a two-country stochastic growth model in which both neutral and investment-specific technology shocks are nonstationary but cointegrated across economies. The results point to large and persistent swings in productivity, both favorable and adverse, originating in the US but not transmitted to the EA. More specifically, the results suggest that while the EA missed out on the period of rapid investment-specific technological change enjoyed in the US during the 1990s, it also escaped the stagnation in neutral technological progress that plagued the US in the 1970s.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 16681.

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Date of creation: Jan 2011
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Publication status: published as Peter N. Ireland, 2013. "Stochastic Growth In The United States And Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 1-24, 02.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16681

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  1. James A. Kahn & Robert W. Rich, 2003. "Tracking the new economy: using growth theory to detect changes in trend productivity," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
  2. Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti & Alejandro Justiniano, 2009. "Investment Shocks and the Relative Price of Investment," 2009 Meeting Papers 686, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-17, June.
  4. Martin Boileau, 1999. "Trade in Capital Goods and Investment-Specific Technical Change," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 68, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
  5. Greenwood, J. & Hercowitz, Z. & Krusell, P., 1995. "Long-Run Implications of Investment-Specific Technological Change," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 9510, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
  6. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca & Leduc, Sylvain, 2004. "International risk-sharing and the transmission of productivity shocks," Working Paper Series 0308, European Central Bank.
  7. Rabanal, Pau & Tuesta, Vicente, 2010. "Euro-dollar real exchange rate dynamics in an estimated two-country model: An assessment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 780-797, April.
  8. Yongsung Chang & Taeyoung Doh & Frank Schorfheide, 2006. "Non-stationary hours in a DSGE model," Working Papers 06-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  9. Pau Rabanal & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Vicente Tuesta, 2009. "Cointegrated TFP processes and international business cycles," Working Paper 2009-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  10. Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Kollmann, Robert Miguel W. K. & Martin, Philippe J., 2008. "International portfolios, capital accumulation and foreign assets dynamics," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,19, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  11. Backus, David K. & Smith, Gregor W., 1993. "Consumption and real exchange rates in dynamic economies with non-traded goods," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3-4), pages 297-316, November.
  12. Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 2002. "Financial autarky and international business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 601-627, April.
  13. Federico S. Mandelman & Pau Rabanal & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Diego Vilán, 2010. "Investment-specific technology shocks and international business cycles: an empirical assessment," Working Paper 2010-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  14. Marc-André Letendre & Daqing Luo, 2007. "Investment-specific shocks and external balances in a small open economy model," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 40(2), pages 650-678, May.
  15. Bergin, Paul R., 2006. "How well can the New Open Economy Macroeconomics explain the exchange rate and current account?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 675-701, August.
  16. Klein, Paul, 2000. "Using the generalized Schur form to solve a multivariate linear rational expectations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1405-1423, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Pau Rabanal & Juan Rubio-Ramirez & Diego Vilan & Federico Mandelman, 2010. "Investment-Specific Technology Shocks and International Business Cycles: An Empirical Assessment," 2010 Meeting Papers 1175, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Kano, Takashi, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Closing a Two-country Model," Discussion Papers 2013-07, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
  3. Naohisa Hirakata & Takushi Kurozumi, 2013. "The International Finance Multiplier in Business Cycle Fluctuations," IMES Discussion Paper Series 13-E-12, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.

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