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Business Cycles, Economic Crises, and the Poor

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  • Pierre-Richard Agenor

Abstract

This paper examines whether output contractions associated with downturns and crises have an asymmetric effect on poverty. Several potential sources of asymmetry are identified first. A vector auto-regression model (involving the output gap, unemployment, real wages, and the poverty rate) is then used to test whether the initial cyclical position of the economy, and the magnitude of the initial drop in the output gap in a downturn, matter in assessing the impact of output shocks on poverty. Empirical results for Brazil indicate that poverty shows less sensitivity to output shocks when the economy is initially in a downturn.

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File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1384128021000066080
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Journal of Economic Policy Reform.

Volume (Year): 5 (2002)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 145-160

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Handle: RePEc:taf:jpolrf:v:5:y:2002:i:3:p:145-160

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Related research

Keywords: Poverty; Business Cycles; Economic Crises; Var Models;

References

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  1. Jonathan Morduch, 1995. "Income Smoothing and Consumption Smoothing," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1727, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  2. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January.
  3. Lokshin, Michael & Ravallion, Martin, 2000. "Short-lived shocks with long-lived impacts? - household income dynamics in a transition economy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2459, The World Bank.
  4. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica & Gupta, Poonam, 2006. "Inside the crisis: An empirical analysis of banking systems in distress," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 702-718, August.
  5. repec:idb:brikps:29338 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. James Levinsohn & Steven Berry & Jed Friedman, 1999. "Impacts of the Indonesian Economic Crisis: Price Changes and the Poor," NBER Working Papers 7194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Joshua Aizenman, 1998. "Contagion and Volatility with Imperfect Credit Markets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(2), pages 207-235, June.
  8. Jaffee, Dwight & Stiglitz, Joseph, 1990. "Credit rationing," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 16, pages 837-888 Elsevier.
  9. Domac, Ilker, 1999. "The distributional consequences of monetary policy : evidence from Malaysia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2170, The World Bank.
  10. Poonam Gupta & Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 2000. "Inside the Crisis," IMF Working Papers 00/156, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Jaeger, Albert & Parkinson, Martin, 1990. "Testing for Hysteresis in Unemployment: An Unobserved Components Approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 185-98.
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