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Business Cycles, Economic Crises, and the Poor

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Author Info
PIERRE-RICHARD AGÉNOR
Abstract

This paper examines whether output contractions associated with downturns and crises have an asymmetric effect on poverty. Several potential sources of asymmetry are identified first. A vector auto-regression model (involving the output gap, unemployment, real wages, and the poverty rate) is then used to test whether the initial cyclical position of the economy, and the magnitude of the initial drop in the output gap in a downturn, matter in assessing the impact of output shocks on poverty. Empirical results for Brazil indicate that poverty shows less sensitivity to output shocks when the economy is initially in a downturn.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal The Journal of Policy Reform.

Volume (Year): 5 (2002)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 145-160
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Handle: RePEc:taf:jpolrf:v:5:y:2002:i:3:p:145-160

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Related research
Keywords: Poverty; Business Cycles; Economic Crises; Var Models;

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Morduch, Jonathan, 1995. "Income Smoothing and Consumption Smoothing," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 103-14, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. repec:pal:imfstp:v:45:y:1998:i:2:p:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    Other versions:
  3. Bernanke, B. & Gertler, M. & Gilchrist, S., 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," Working Papers 98-03, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Jaffee, Dwight & Stiglitz, Joseph, 1990. "Credit rationing," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 16, pages 837-888 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. James Levinsohn & Steven Berry & Jed Friedman, 1999. "Impacts of the Indonesian Economic Crisis: Price Changes and the Poor," NBER Working Papers 7194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Lokshin, Michael & Ravallion, Martin, 2000. "Short-lived shocks with long-lived impacts? - household income dynamics in a transition economy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2459, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Jaeger, Albert & Parkinson, Martin, 1990. "Testing for Hysteresis in Unemployment: An Unobserved Components Approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 185-98.
  8. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica & Gupta, Poonam, 2000. "Inside the crisis : an empirical analysis of banking systems in distress," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2431, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Domac, Ilker, 1999. "The distributional consequences of monetary policy : evidence from Malaysia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2170, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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