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Les bulles « robustes ». Pourquoi il faut construire des logements en région parisienne

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  • Xavier Timbeau

Abstract

« Bulle » ou « pas bulle » ? La question taraude les observateurs et les acteurs du marché immobilier français. Nous examinons dans cet article les éléments empiriques et théoriques qui expliquent la hausse des prix récente et sa résistance aux retournements conjoncturels. En combinant la notion de bulle économique, les arguments de l’économie spatiale et une analyse d’économie politique, nous suggérons que la valorisation importante de l’immobilier en France est le résultat d’une logique rationnelle et conforte les intérêts des acteurs locaux. Dès lors, la forte valorisation peut être considérée comme une « bulle robuste », à même de résister à des chocs importants. Cette bulle organise un transfert intergénérationnel et peut avoir des effets positifs. Elle peut également renforcer la ségrégation spatiale, alimenter les inégalités territoriales et empêcher d’exploiter les économies d’agglomération possibles. L’analyse est détaillée sur la région Ile-de-France où ces phénomènes sont particulièrement marqués.
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Suggested Citation

  • Xavier Timbeau, 2013. "Les bulles « robustes ». Pourquoi il faut construire des logements en région parisienne," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(2), pages 277-313.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_128_0277
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    1. Gaia Garino & Lucio Sarno, 2004. "Speculative Bubbles in U.K. House Prices: Some New Evidence," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 70(4), pages 777-795, April.
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    5. Sandrine Levasseur, 2013. "Éléments de réflexion sur le foncier et sa contribution au prix de l'immobilier," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(2), pages 365-394.
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    Cited by:

    1. Guillaume Allegre & Xavier Timbeau, 2014. "Welcome to Nouillorc le capital-logement ne contribue-t-il vraiment pas aux inégalités ?," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03460427, HAL.
    2. Gerard Cornilleau & Jerome Creel, 2014. "Financialisation and the Financial and Economic Crises: The Case of France," FESSUD studies fstudy22, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
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