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Do multiple bubbles exist in coal price?

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  • Khan, Khalid
  • Su, Chi-Wei
  • Rehman, Ashfaq U.

Abstract

This study examines whether there are multiple bubbles in the coal price (CLP) employing the most suitable Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (SADF) and Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) approach. The results show that CLP deviates three times from the fundamental price, indicates the existence of multiple bubbles. This specifies the start and termination of bubbles around a specific event. The oil price shocks, economic growth, technological developments, supply security concern, geopolitical situation and the crisis of overproduction cause the first bubble. Similarly, robust global economic growth, rising freight rates, and potential investment prospects are the leading factors of the second CLP bubble. However, the third bubble is caused by rapid demand from emerging economies, rising oil prices, and financial recession. The logit regression suggests that oil prices and electricity consumption have a positive impact on CLP bubbles, while coal consumption negatively explains the CLP. It provides useful information about the causes of the various stakeholders in the market, which should be followed continuously to avoid the crisis. Similarly, a mechanism should be developed to successfully detect the detrimental effects of shocks on the international coal market.

Suggested Citation

  • Khan, Khalid & Su, Chi-Wei & Rehman, Ashfaq U., 2021. "Do multiple bubbles exist in coal price?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:73:y:2021:i:c:s0301420721002439
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102232
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Coal price bubble; Energy consumption; Supply security; Generalized; Supremum ADF;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market
    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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