Core import price inflation in the United States
AbstractThe cross-section distribution of U.S. import prices exhibits some of the fat-tailed characteristics that are well documented for the cross-section distribution of U.S. consumer prices. This suggests that limited-influence estimators of core import price inflation might outperform headline or traditional measures of core import price inflation. We examine whether limited influence estimators of core import price inflation help forecast overall import price inflation. They do not. However, limited influence estimators of core import price inflation do seem to have some predictive power for headline consumer price inflation in the medium term.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in its series Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper with number 131.
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-01-07 (All new papers)
- NEP-FOR-2013-01-07 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2013-01-07 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2013-01-07 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert J. Gordon, 2011. "The History of the Phillips Curve: Consensus and Bifurcation," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(309), pages 10-50, January.
- Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999.
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
- D'Agostino, Antonello & Surico, Paolo, 2007.
"Does global liquidity help to forecast US inflation?,"
Research Technical Papers
10/RT/07, Central Bank of Ireland.
- Antonello D'Agostino & Paolo Surico, 2009. "Does Global Liquidity Help to Forecast U.S. Inflation?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2-3), pages 479-489, 03.
- D'Agostino, A & Surico, P, 2007. "Does global liquidity help to forecast US inflation?," MPRA Paper 6283, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Jim Dolmas, 2005. "Trimmed mean PCE inflation," Working Papers 0506, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti & Rodney L. Wiggins II, 1997.
"Efficient Inflation Estimation,"
NBER Working Papers
6183, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Amy Chapman).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.