Different indexes for forecasting economic activity in Russia (in Russian)
AbstractThis paper considers different ways of computing indexes for forecasting economic activity in Russia. The first is the methodology used by the Russian Development Centre based on the concept of "growth cycles". The second combines the dynamic principal components and dynamic factor analyses. The third approach is the NBER methodology based of diffusion indexes constructed using a dynamic factor model. This paper is an attempt to reveal strengths and weaknesses of the three methods in application to Russian data and to develop a better methodology for forecasting economic activity in Russia.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Quantile in its journal Quantile.
Volume (Year): (2008)
Issue (Month): 5 (September)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://quantile.ru/
index of economic activity; leading and coincident indicators; dynamic principal components; factor model; Russia;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
You can help add them by filling out this form.
reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Stanislav Anatolyev).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.