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Permanent and Transitory Shocks among Pacific Island Economies - Prospects for a Pacific Islands Currency Union

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  • Willie Lahari

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    (Department of Economics, University of Otago)

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    Abstract

    This paper re-kindles the debate on the feasibility of a Pacific Islands currency union in view of the recent expansion and consolidation of regional strategies and agreements such as the ÔPacific PlanÕ and the Pacific Agreement on Closer Economic Relations Plus. These initiatives, including past efforts, have given limited consideration to the subject for a Pacific Islands currency union. This study exploits the optimal currency area theoretical framework and employs the Gonzalo and Ng (2001) decomposition method. This is the first time this method is used in the analysis relating to currency or monetary unions. Newly-constructed quarterly time series data are also applied. This paper investigates the dynamic effects of permanent and transitory shocks on key macroeconomic variables among Pacific Island countries (PICs). Evidence shows that the proposed union of six PICs (Fiji, PNG, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and Tonga) do not meet most of the preconditions for a union. However, further investigation shows evidence for the Melanesian countries (Fiji, PNG, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu) to possibly form a monetary union, preferably with the Australian dollar as the anchor currency. Nonetheless, further costs in terms of the alignment of policies by Melanesian countries are required.

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    File URL: http://www.business.otago.ac.nz/econ/research/discussionpapers/DP_1001.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2010
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by University of Otago, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 1001.

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    Length: 36 pages
    Date of creation: Feb 2010
    Date of revision: Feb 2010
    Handle: RePEc:otg:wpaper:1001

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    Keywords: Currency union; Gonzalo and Ng (2001) decomposition; Pacific Island countries;

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