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Is inflation an international phenomenon?

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  • Christopher J. Neely
  • David E. Rapach

Abstract

Common shocks, similarities in central bank reaction functions, and international trade potentially produce common components in international inflation rates. This paper characterizes such links in international inflation rates with a dynamic latent factor model that decomposes inflation for 65 countries into world, regional, and idiosyncratic components. The world component accounts for 34% of inflation variability on average across countries, although the importance of this global factor differs substantially across countries. Variables that reflect policy as well as economic and financial development strongly explain the cross-section variation in the relative importance of global influences. A parsimonious model of time variation in the factor loadings shows that most countries became more sensitive to international inflation influences over 1951 2006. In addition, European-specific influences became more important over time for countries participating in European economic and monetary integration.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2008-025.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2008-025

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Keywords: Inflation (Finance);

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Robert Anderton & Alessandro Galesi & Marco Lombardi & Filippo di Mauro, . "Key elements of global inflation," Discussion Papers 09/22, University of Nottingham, GEP.
  2. Saverio Simonelli & Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2009. "A Historical Perspective on International Co-movements: 1821-2007," 2009 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics 523, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Andreas Steiner, 2010. "Central Banks’ Dilemma: Reserve Accumulation, Inflation and Financial Instability," Working Papers, Institute of Empirical Economic Research 84, Institute of Empirical Economic Research.
  4. Karagedikli, Özer & Mumtaz, Haroon & Tanaka, Misa, 2010. "All together now: do international factors explain relative price comovements?," Bank of England working papers 381, Bank of England.
  5. Haroon Mumtaz & Saverio Simonelli & Paolo Surico, 2011. "International Comovements, Business Cycle and Inflation: a Historical Perspective," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 176-198, January.
  6. Dovern, Jonas & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Scheide, Joachim & van Roye, Björn, 2008. "Weltwirtschaft im Abschwung," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 28829, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  7. Espen Henriksen & Finn E. Kydland & Roman Sustek, 2009. "Globally Correlated Nominal Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 15123, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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