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Skewness in Stock Returns:Reconciling the Evidence on Firm versus Aggregate Returns

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  • Albuquerque, Rui

Abstract

Aggregate stock market returns display negative skewness. Firm-level stock returns display positive skewness. The large literature that tries to explain the first stylized fact ignores the second. This paper provides a unified theory that reconciles the two facts. I build a stationary asset pricing model of firm announcement events where firm returns display positive skewness. I then show that cross-sectional heterogeneity in firm announcement events can lead to negative skewness in aggregate returns. I provide evidence consistent with the model predictions.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 7896.

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Date of creation: Jun 2010
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7896

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Keywords: announcement events; crosssectional heterogeneity; firm returns; market returns; Skewness;

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References

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  1. Veronesi, Pietro, 2004. "The Peso problem hypothesis and stock market returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 707-725, January.
  2. Jianguo Xu, 2007. "Price Convexity and Skewness," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(5), pages 2521-2552, October.
  3. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 2003. "Simple Forecasts and Paradigm Shifts," NBER Working Papers 10013, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Cohen, Daniel A. & Dey, Aiyesha & Lys, Thomas Z. & Sunder, Shyam V., 2007. "Earnings announcement premia and the limits to arbitrage," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2-3), pages 153-180, July.
  5. Brian Boyer & Todd Mitton & Keith Vorkink, 2010. "Expected Idiosyncratic Skewness," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 169-202, January.
  6. Geert Bekaert & Guojun Wu, 1997. "Asymmetric Volatility and Risk in Equity Markets," NBER Working Papers 6022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Markus Haas, 2004. "Mixed Normal Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 2(2), pages 211-250.
  8. Arturo Bris & William Goetzmann & Ning Zhu, 2004. "Efficiency and the Bear: Short Sales and Markets around the World," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm327, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Feb 2005.
  9. Barro, Robert, 2006. "Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century," Scholarly Articles 3208215, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  10. Veronesi, Pietro, 1999. "Stock Market Overreaction to Bad News in Good Times: A Rational Expectations Equilibrium Model," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(5), pages 975-1007.
  11. Rietz, Thomas A., 1988. "The equity risk premium a solution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 117-131, July.
  12. Duffee, Gregory R., 1995. "Stock returns and volatility A firm-level analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 399-420, March.
  13. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
  14. Wu, Guojun, 2001. "The Determinants of Asymmetric Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(3), pages 837-59.
  15. Gurdip Bakshi & Nikunj Kapadia & Dilip Madan, 2003. "Stock Return Characteristics, Skew Laws, and the Differential Pricing of Individual Equity Options," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(1), pages 101-143.
  16. Campbell R. Harvey & Akhtar Siddique, 2000. "Conditional Skewness in Asset Pricing Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1263-1295, 06.
  17. Kraus, Alan & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1976. "Skewness Preference and the Valuation of Risk Assets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1085-1100, September.
  18. Hong, Harrison & Wang, Jiang & Yu, Jialin, 2008. "Firms as buyers of last resort," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 119-145, April.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Patrick Roger & Marie-Hélène Broihanne & Maxime Merli, 2012. "In search of positive skewness: the case of individual investors," Working Papers of LaRGE Research Center 2012-04, Laboratoire de Recherche en Gestion et Economie (LaRGE), Université de Strasbourg.
  2. Dijk, Oege & Holmen, Martin & Kirchler, Michael, 2014. "Rank matters–The impact of social competition on portfolio choice," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 97-110.
  3. Acharya, Viral V & DeMarzo, Peter & Kremer, Ilan, 2008. "Endogenous Information Flows and the Clustering of Announcements," CEPR Discussion Papers 6985, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Chang, Bo Young & Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris, 2013. "Market skewness risk and the cross section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(1), pages 46-68.
  5. Chou, Pin-Huang & Chou, Robin K. & Ko, Kuan-Cheng & Chao, Chun-Yi, 2013. "What affects the cool-off duration under price limits?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 256-278.

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