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Volume and Skewness in International Equity Markets

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  • Colm Kearney
  • Margaret Lynch

Abstract

This paper utilizes a unique dataset on votes cast by Czech and Polish migrants in their recent national elections to investigate the impact of institutional, political and economic characteristics on migrants’ voting behavior. The political preferences of migrants are strikingly different from those of their domestic counterparts. In addition, there are also important differences among migrants living in different countries. This paper examines three alternative hypotheses to explain migrant voting behavior: adaptive learning;economic self-selection and political self-selection. The results of the analysis suggest that migrant voting behavior is affected by the institutional environment of the host countries, in particular the tradition of democracy and the extent of economic freedom. In contrast, there is little evidence that differences in migrants’ political attitudes are caused by self-selection based either on economic motives or political attitudes prior to migrating. These results are interpreted as indicating that migrants’ political preferences change in the wake of migration as they adapt to the norms and values prevailing in their surroundings. Classification-

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by IIIS in its series The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series with number iiisdp043.

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Date of creation: 20 Apr 2005
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Handle: RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp043

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Keywords: International stock markets; Skewness; Volume; VAR.;

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  1. Shalen, Catherine T, 1993. "Volume, Volatility, and the Dispersion of Beliefs," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 405-34.
  2. John Y. Campbell & Ludger Hentschel, 1991. "No News is Good News: An Asymmetric Model of Changing Volatility in Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 3742, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Chen, Joseph & Hong, Harrison & Stein, Jeremy C., 2001. "Forecasting crashes: trading volume, past returns, and conditional skewness in stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 345-381, September.
  4. Fong, Wai Mun, 2003. "Time reversibility tests of volume-volatility dynamics for stock returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 39-45, October.
  5. Amado Peiro, 2002. "Skewness in individual stocks at different investment horizons," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 139-146.
  6. Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-55, January.
  7. Aggarwal, Raj & Rao, Ramesh P & Hiraki, Takato, 1989. "Skewness and Kurtosis in Japanese Equity Returns: Empirical Evidence," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 12(3), pages 253-60, Fall.
  8. Harvey, Campbell R. & Siddique, Akhtar, 1999. "Autoregressive Conditional Skewness," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(04), pages 465-487, December.
  9. Alles, Lakshman A & Kling, John L, 1994. "Regularities in the Variation of Skewness in Asset Returns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 17(3), pages 427-38, Fall.
  10. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 2003. "Differences of Opinion, Short-Sales Constraints, and Market Crashes," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(2), pages 487-525.
  11. Colm Kearney & Margaret Lynch, 2005. "Are International Equity Markets Really Skewed?," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp040, IIIS.
  12. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., 1997. "Generalised Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9710, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  13. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
  14. Singleton, J. Clay & Wingender, John, 1986. "Skewness Persistence in Common Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(03), pages 335-341, September.
  15. Hueng, C. James & McDonald, James B., 2005. "Forecasting asymmetries in aggregate stock market returns: Evidence from conditional skewness," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 666-685, December.
  16. Aggarwal, Raj & Schatzberg, John D., 1997. "Day of the week effects, information seasonality, and higher moments of security returns," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 1-20, February.
  17. Karpoff, Jonathan M., 1987. "The Relation between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(01), pages 109-126, March.
  18. Kim, Tae-Hwan & White, Halbert, 2004. "On more robust estimation of skewness and kurtosis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 56-73, March.
  19. Harris, Milton & Raviv, Artur, 1993. "Differences of Opinion Make a Horse Race," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 473-506.
  20. Campbell R. Harvey & Akhtar Siddique, 2000. "Conditional Skewness in Asset Pricing Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1263-1295, 06.
  21. Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 394.
  22. Epps, Thomas W & Epps, Mary Lee, 1976. "The Stochastic Dependence of Security Price Changes and Transaction Volumes: Implications for the Mixture-of-Distributions Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(2), pages 305-21, March.
  23. Chordia, Tarun & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar & Anshuman, V. Ravi, 2001. "Trading activity and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 3-32, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Bissoondoyal-Bheenick, Emawtee & Brooks, Robert D., 2010. "Does volume help in predicting stock returns? An analysis of the Australian market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 146-157, June.
  2. Campbell, Cynthia J. & Cowan, Arnold R. & Salotti, Valentina, 2010. "Multi-country event-study methods," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 3078-3090, December.
  3. Chuang, Chia-Chang & Kuan, Chung-Ming & Lin, Hsin-Yi, 2009. "Causality in quantiles and dynamic stock return-volume relations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1351-1360, July.
  4. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2012. "Revisiting the empirical linkages between stock returns and trading volume," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1781-1788.
  5. Lai, Jing-yi, 2012. "Shock-dependent conditional skewness in international aggregate stock markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 72-83.
  6. Jokipii, Terhi, 2006. "Forecasting market crashes: further international evidence," Research Discussion Papers 22/2006, Bank of Finland.

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