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Simple Forecasts and Paradigm Shifts

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Author Info
Harrison Hong
Jeremy C. Stein

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Abstract

We study the implications of learning in an environment where the true model of the world is a multivariate one, but where agents update only over the class of simple univariate models. If a particular simple model does a poor job of forecasting over a period of time, it is eventually discarded in favor of an alternative yet equally simple model that would have done better over the same period. This theory makes several distinctive predictions, which, for concreteness, we develop in a stock-market setting. For example, starting with symmetric and homoskedastic fundamentals, the theory yields forecastable variation in the size of the value/glamour differential, in volatility, and in the skewness of returns. Some of these features mirror familiar accounts of stock-price bubbles.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10013.

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Date of creation: Oct 2003
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10013

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search, Learning, and Information
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

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References listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Frydman, R. & Goldberg, M.D., 2003. "Imperfect Knowledge and Asset Price Dynamics: Modeling the Forecasting of Rational Agents, Dynamic Prospect Theory and Uncertainty Premia on Foreign Exchange," Working Papers 03-03, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
  2. Christian Hellwig, 2005. "Knowing What Others Know: Coordination Motives in Information Acquisition (March 2007, with Laura Veldkamp)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 369, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Lin Peng & Wei Xiong, 2005. "Investor Attention: Overconfidence and Category Learning," NBER Working Papers 11400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Roman Frydman & Michael D. Goldberg, 2003. "Imperfect Knowledge and Asset Price Dynamics: Modeling the Forecasting of Rational Agents, Dynamic Prospect Theory and Uncertainty Premia on Foreign Exchange," Discussion Papers 03-31, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Hommes, C.H. & Sonnemans, J. & Tuinstra, J. & Velden, H. van de, 2002. "Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments (Revised June 2003)," CeNDEF Working Papers 02-07, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
  6. Cars Hommes & Joep Sonnemans & Jan Tuinstra & Henk van de Velden, . "Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 119, Netherlands Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  7. David Hirshleifer & KEWEI HOU & Siew Hong Teoh & YINGLEI ZHANG, 2004. "Do Investors Overvalue Firms With Bloated Balance Sheets?," Finance 0412001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Laura Veldkamp, 2004. "Information Markets and the Comovement of Asset Prices," Working Papers 04-18, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Kevin J. Lansing, 2005. "Lock-in of extrapolative expectations in an asset pricing model," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2004-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Hommes, C.H. & Sonnemans, J. & Tuinstra, J. & Velden, H. van de, 2004. "Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments (Version March 2004)," CeNDEF Working Papers 04-02, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
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