IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v172y2019icp861-873.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing the impact of Brazilian economic growth on demand for electricity

Author

Listed:
  • Maluf de Lima, Lilian
  • Piedade Bacchi, Mirian Rumenos

Abstract

This study analyzes the effect of increased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on demand for electricity in Brazil from 2004 through 2018 using a transfer function model. The data was derived from a time series of monthly Brazilian GDP and from a monthly series of total Brazilian energy consumption. As an increase in GDP is considered a proxy for economic growth, the study indicates that a 1% increase in Brazilian GDP results in a 0.475% increase in total electricity consumption in Brazil. In addition, electricity consumption forecasts were obtained for the 2018–2023 period using two procedures: the “standard” and “one-step-ahead” procedures. Two quantity indexes were also calculated for this period: one based on consumption forecasts obtained in this study and another based on estimates of installed capacity provided by the EPE. Growth was observed in both indexes, but the series for consumption had a very conservative growth in relation to that recorded for installed capacity. This analysis intends to provide an important contribution to existing literature by assessing the impacts of different GDP growth rates on demand for electricity.

Suggested Citation

  • Maluf de Lima, Lilian & Piedade Bacchi, Mirian Rumenos, 2019. "Assessing the impact of Brazilian economic growth on demand for electricity," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 861-873.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:172:y:2019:i:c:p:861-873
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2019.01.154
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544219301707
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2019.01.154?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eduardo Modiano, 1984. "Elasticidade - renda e preços da demanda de energia elétrica no Brasil," Textos para discussão 68, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    2. Payne, James E., 2009. "On the dynamics of energy consumption and output in the US," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(4), pages 575-577, April.
    3. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Tang, Chor Foon & Shahbaz Shabbir, Muhammad, 2011. "Electricity consumption and economic growth nexus in Portugal using cointegration and causality approaches," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3529-3536, June.
    4. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Lean, Hooi Hooi, 2012. "The dynamics of electricity consumption and economic growth: A revisit study of their causality in Pakistan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 146-153.
    5. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    6. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    7. Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2009. "Electricity consumption and economic growth in South Africa: A trivariate causality test," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 635-640, September.
    8. Kamerschen, David R. & Porter, David V., 2004. "The demand for residential, industrial and total electricity, 1973-1998," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 87-100, January.
    9. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    10. Nasr, G. E. & Badr, E. A. & Dibeh, G., 2000. "Econometric modeling of electricity consumption in post-war Lebanon," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 627-640, December.
    11. Menegaki, Angeliki N., 2011. "Growth and renewable energy in Europe: A random effect model with evidence for neutrality hypothesis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 257-263, March.
    12. Eduardo Wanderley Garcez & André Garcez Ghirardi, 2003. "Elasticidades da Demanda Residencial de Energia Elétrica," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31st Brazilian Economics Meeting] d34, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    13. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    14. Yoo, Seung-Hoon & Kwak, So-Yoon, 2010. "Electricity consumption and economic growth in seven South American countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 181-188, January.
    15. Pao, Hsiao-Tien, 2009. "Forecast of electricity consumption and economic growth in Taiwan by state space modeling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 1779-1791.
    16. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    17. Holtedahl, Pernille & Joutz, Frederick L., 2004. "Residential electricity demand in Taiwan," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 201-224, March.
    18. Lester D. Taylor, 1975. "The Demand for Electricity: A Survey," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 6(1), pages 74-110, Spring.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Silva, Tatiane C. & Pinto, Gabriel M. & de Souza, Túlio A.Z. & Valerio, Victor & Silvério, Naidion M. & Coronado, Christian J.R. & Guardia, Eduardo Crestana, 2020. "Technical and economical evaluation of the photovoltaic system in Brazilian public buildings: A case study for peak and off-peak hours," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    2. Rafael Ninno Muniz & Carlos Tavares da Costa Júnior & William Gouvêa Buratto & Ademir Nied & Gabriel Villarrubia González, 2023. "The Sustainability Concept: A Review Focusing on Energy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-22, September.
    3. Koščak Kolin, Sonja & Karasalihović Sedlar, Daria & Kurevija, Tomislav, 2021. "Relationship between electricity and economic growth for long-term periods: New possibilities for energy prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    4. Ruan, Fang-Li & Yan, Liang, 2022. "Interactions among electricity consumption, disposable income, wastewater discharge, and economic growth: Evidence from megacities in China from 1995 to 2018," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    5. Zuin, Gianlucca & Buechler, Rob & Sun, Tao & Zanocco, Chad & Galuppo, Francisco & Veloso, Adriano & Rajagopal, Ram, 2023. "Extreme event counterfactual analysis of electricity consumption in Brazil: Historical impacts and future outlook under climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 281(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Solarin, Sakiru Adebola & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2013. "Trivariate causality between economic growth, urbanisation and electricity consumption in Angola: Cointegration and causality analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 876-884.
    2. Bilgili, Faik & Koçak, Emrah & Bulut, Ümit & Sualp, M. Nedim, 2016. "How did the US economy react to shale gas production revolution? An advanced time series approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(P1), pages 963-977.
    3. Dakpogan, Arnaud & Smit, Eon, 2018. "The effect of electricity losses on GDP in Benin," MPRA Paper 89545, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Zhang, Chi & Zhou, Kaile & Yang, Shanlin & Shao, Zhen, 2017. "On electricity consumption and economic growth in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 353-368.
    5. Hamdi, Helmi & Sbia, Rashid & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2014. "The nexus between electricity consumption and economic growth in Bahrain," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 227-237.
    6. Saleheen, Khan & Farooq Ahmed, Jam & Muhammad, Shahbaz, 2012. "Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in Kazakhstan: Fresh Evidence from a Multivariate Framework Analysis," MPRA Paper 43460, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Dec 2012.
    7. Kyophilavong, Phouphet & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Kim, Byoungki & OH, Jeong-Soo, 2017. "A note on the electricity-growth nexus in Lao PDR," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 1251-1260.
    8. Kahia, Montassar & Ben Aïssa, Mohamed Safouane & Charfeddine, Lanouar, 2016. "Impact of renewable and non-renewable energy consumption on economic growth: New evidence from the MENA Net Oil Exporting Countries (NOECs)," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(P1), pages 102-115.
    9. Al-mulali, Usama & Fereidouni, Hassan Gholipour & Lee, Janice Y.M., 2014. "Electricity consumption from renewable and non-renewable sources and economic growth: Evidence from Latin American countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 290-298.
    10. repec:agr:journl:v:4(605):y:2015:i:4(605):p:133-144 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Al-Mulali, Usama & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2014. "Are energy conservation policies effective without harming economic growth in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 639-650.
    12. repec:agr:journl:v:4(605):y:2015:i:4(605):p:135-146 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Michael McAleer & Ha Minh Nguyen & Ngoc Hoang Bui & Duc Hong Vo, 2019. "Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence from Vietnam," Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, Lifescience Global, vol. 8, pages 350-361.
    14. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Lean, Hooi Hooi, 2012. "The dynamics of electricity consumption and economic growth: A revisit study of their causality in Pakistan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 146-153.
    15. Vicente Esteve, 2004. "Política fiscal y productividad del trabajo en la economía española: un análisis de series temporales," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, June.
    16. Eléazar Zerbo, 2017. "Energy consumption and economic growth in Sub-Saharan African countries: Further evidence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(3), pages 1720-1744.
    17. Ugur Korkut Pata & Sukran Kahveci, 2018. "A multivariate causality analysis between electricity consumption and economic growth in Turkey," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 20(6), pages 2857-2870, December.
    18. Vicente Esteve & Juan Sanchis, "undated". "Estimating the substitutability between private and public consumption: the case of Spain, 1960- 2001," Studies on the Spanish Economy 161, FEDEA.
    19. Troster, Victor & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2018. "Renewable energy, oil prices, and economic activity: A Granger-causality in quantiles analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 440-452.
    20. Kahia, Montassar & Aïssa, Mohamed Safouane Ben & Lanouar, Charfeddine, 2017. "Renewable and non-renewable energy use - economic growth nexus: The case of MENA Net Oil Importing Countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 127-140.
    21. Abbas Ali Chandio & Yuansheng Jiang & Jam Ghulam Murtaza Sahito & Fayyaz Ahmad, 2019. "Empirical Insights into the Long-Run Linkage between Households Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: Macro-Level Empirical Evidence from Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-17, November.
    22. Acheampong, Alex O. & Boateng, Elliot & Amponsah, Mary & Dzator, Janet, 2021. "Revisiting the economic growth–energy consumption nexus: Does globalization matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    GDP; Electric power; Transfer function; Time series; Installed capacity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:172:y:2019:i:c:p:861-873. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.