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Cyclical Properties in the Main Western Economies

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  • P J Pérez

Abstract

This paper analyses the cyclical properties in the main western economies (G-7 countries, Spain and Switzerland). Using the contemporary or maximum cross-correlation with the GDP could mask or find similarities among countries when they do not exist, we focus on the structure of a wide set of cross-correlations. The results show a great similarity in the cyclical behaviour of the variables, showing common business cycle phenomena among the analysed countries. The highest differences were found in the behaviour of the monetary variables and in the real wage, what seems to indicate a different role of the monetary policy and differences in the national labour markets. Additionally, we use three alternative filter methods (HP, BK and First Difference), and in contrast to the work of Canova (1998), the results do not change, at least qualitatively, with the filter method. Moreover, we study the temporal stability of the cyclical facts. This analysis shows that in general the relationship of the different variables with the GDP cycle is fundamentally stable over time, while volatilities are not so stable, indicating that the same economic mechanisms are present in periods of high and low volatility.

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File URL: http://www.socialsciences.manchester.ac.uk/medialibrary/cgbcr/discussionpapers/dpcgbcr33.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester in its series Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series with number 33.

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Length: 72 pages
Date of creation: 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:man:cgbcrp:33

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Web page: http://www.socialsciences.manchester.ac.uk/subjects/economics/our-research/centre-for-growth-and-business-cycle-research/
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Related research

Keywords: Cyclical Stylised Facts; Correlation Structure; Alternative Filter Method; Temporal Stability;

References

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  1. Cooley, T.F. & Ohanian, L.E., 1989. "The Cyclical Behavior Of Prices," RCER Working Papers 188, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  2. Nickell, Stephen J & Symons, James, 1990. "The Real Wage-Employment Relationship in the United States," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(1), pages 1-15, January.
  3. John P. Judd & Bharat Trehan, 1993. "The cyclical behavior of prices: interpreting the evidence," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 93-14, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  4. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1991. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 819-40, September.
  5. S. Rao Aiyagari & Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1990. "The output, employment, and interest rate effects of government consumption," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 25, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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  8. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts: A user's guide," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 533-540, May.
  9. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1992. "International Evidence of the Historical Properties of Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 864-88, September.
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  11. Fiorito, Riccardo & Kollintzas, Tryphon, 1994. "Stylized facts of business cycles in the G7 from a real business cycles perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 235-269, February.
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  13. Englund, P. & Persson, T. & Svensson, L.E.O., 1991. "Swedish Business Cycles : 1861-1988," RCER Working Papers 275a, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  14. David Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1993. "International Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 4493, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Sophia Dimelis, 1997. "Cyclical and causal relations between real wages and employment in the EU," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 311-324.
  16. Canova, Fabio, 1993. "Detrending and Business Cycle Facts," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 782, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, W, 1997. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, January.
  18. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, October.
  19. Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1990. "Business cycles: real facts and a monetary myth," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 3-18.
  20. Peter Brandner & Klaus Neusser, 1992. "Business cycles in open economies: Stylized facts for Austria and Germany," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 67-87, March.
  21. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1993. "International business cycles: theory vs. evidence," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 14-29.
  22. Blackburn, Keith & Ravn, Morten O, 1992. "Business Cycles in the United Kingdom: Facts and Fictions," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 59(236), pages 383-401, November.
  23. Christodoulakis, Nicos & Dimelis, Sophia P & Kollintzas, Tryphon, 1995. "Comparisons of Business Cycles in the EC: Idiosyncracies and Regularities," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 62(245), pages 1-27, February.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Marczak, Martyna & Beissinger, Thomas, 2010. "Real wages and the business cycle in Germany," FZID Discussion Papers 20-2010, University of Hohenheim, Center for Research on Innovation and Services (FZID).
  2. Tatiana Cesaroni, 2011. "The cyclical behavior of the Italian business survey data," Empirical Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 747-768, December.
  3. Marczak, Martyna & Gómez, Víctor, 2012. "Cyclicality of real wages in the USA and Germany: New insights from wavelet analysis," FZID Discussion Papers 50-2012, University of Hohenheim, Center for Research on Innovation and Services (FZID).

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