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Are oil, gold and the euro inter-related? Time series and neural network analysis

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Author Info

  • A. Malliaris

    ()

  • Mary Malliaris

    ()

Abstract

This paper investigates inter-relationships among the price behavior of oil, gold and the euro using time series and neural network methodologies. Traditionally gold is a leading indicator of future inflation. Both the demand and supply of oil as a key global commodity are impacted by inflationary expectations and such expectations determine current spot prices. Inflation influences both short and long-term interest rates that in turn influence the value of the dollar measured in terms of the euro. Certain hypotheses are formulated in this paper and time series and neural network methodologies are employed to test these hypotheses. We find that the markets for oil, gold and the euro are efficient but have limited inter-relationships among themselves. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2013

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11156-011-0265-9
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting.

Volume (Year): 40 (2013)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 1-14

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Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:40:y:2013:i:1:p:1-14

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Web page: http://springerlink.metapress.com/link.asp?id=102990

Related research

Keywords: Oil; Gold; The Euro; Relationships; Time-series analysis; Neural network methodology; G14; G15; Q41;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & George Filis, 2014. "Dynamic Spillovers of Oil Price Shocks and Policy Uncertainty," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp166, Vienna University of Economics, Department of Economics.
  2. Reboredo, Juan C., 2013. "Is gold a safe haven or a hedge for the US dollar? Implications for risk management," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2665-2676.

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