Sources of German unemployment: evidence from a structural VAR model
AbstractThis paper analyzes the dynamic effects of different macroeconomic shocks on unemployment in Germany. In a first step, a cointegration analysis of productivity, prices, real wages, employment, and the unemployment rate reveals two long run relationships, interpreted as a labor demand and a wage setting scheme. Secondly, a structural VAR model is identified using the restrictions suggested by a single macroeconomic model. The impulse response analysis and the forecast error variance decomposition display that price, demand, and labor supply shocks affect unemployment significantly in the short/medium run. Interestingly, however, wage and technology shocks do not seem to play a dominant role. --
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research in its series ZEW Discussion Papers with number 01-41.
Date of creation: 2001
Date of revision:
Unemployment; Structural VAR; Cointegration;
Other versions of this item:
- Tobias Linzert, 2004. "Sources of German Unemployment: Evidence from a Structural VAR Model," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 224(3), pages 317-336, May.
- E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
- J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hunt, Jennifer, 1995.
"The Effect of Unemployment Compensation on Unemployment Duration in Germany,"
Journal of Labor Economics,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 13(1), pages 88-120, January.
- Jennifer Hunt, 1992. "The Effect of Unemployment Compensation on Unemployment Duration in Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 50, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Bernanke, Ben S., 1986.
"Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation,"
Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,
Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
- Ben S. Bernanke, 1986. "Alternative Explanations of the Money-Income Correlation," NBER Working Papers 1842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Søren Johansen & Katarina Juselius, 1992.
"Identification of the Long-Run and the Short-Run Structure: An Application to the ISLM Model,"
92-04, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1994. "Identification of the long-run and the short-run structure an application to the ISLM model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 7-36, July.
- C Bean, 1992.
"European Unemployment: A Survey,"
CEP Discussion Papers
dp0071, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Carlton, Dennis W, 1986.
"The Rigidity of Prices,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 637-58, September.
- Manning, Alan, 1993.
"Wage Bargaining and the Phillips Curve: The Identification and Specification of Aggregate Wage Equations,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 98-118, January.
- Alan Manning, 1992. "Wage Bargaining and the Phillips Curve: The Identification and Specification of Aggregate Wage Equations," CEP Discussion Papers dp0062, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1989. "A Traditional Interpretation of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1146-64, December.
- Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1987.
"Are Business Cycles All Alike?,"
NBER Working Papers
1392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dolado, Juan J. & Jimeno, Juan F., 1997. "The causes of Spanish unemployment: A structural VAR approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1281-1307, July.
- Hassler, Uwe & Wolters, Jurgen, 1995. "Long Memory in Inflation Rates: International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 37-45, January.
- Olivier Blanchard & Justin Wolfers, 1999.
"The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence,"
NBER Working Papers
7282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Blanchard, Olivier & Wolfers, Justin, 2000. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages C1-33, March.
- Doornik, Jurgen A & Hendry, David F & Nielsen, Bent, 1998.
" Inference in Cointegrating Models: UK M1 Revisited,"
Journal of Economic Surveys,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 533-72, December.
- Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry & Bent Nielsen, 1998. "Inference in Cointegrating Models: UK M1 Revisited," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 533-572, December.
- Phillips, Peter C. B., 1998.
"Impulse response and forecast error variance asymptotics in nonstationary VARs,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 21-56.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1995. "Impulse Response and Forecast Error Variance Asymptotics in Nonstationary VAR's," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1102, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- repec:cup:macdyn:v:2:y:1998:i:4:p:472-91 is not listed on IDEAS
- Andersen, Torben M. & Hylleberg, Svend, 1998. "Wage Adjustment And Employment Persistency," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(04), pages 472-491, December.
- Giannini, Carlo & Lanzarotti, Antonio & Seghelini, Mario, 1995. "A traditional interpretation of macroeconomic fluctuations: The case of Italy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 131-155, March.
- Kai Carstensen & Gerd Hansen, 2000. "Cointegration and common trends on the West German labour market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 475-493.
- Lindbeck, Assar, 1992. "Macroeconomic theory and the labor market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(2-3), pages 209-235, April.
- Hansen, Gerd, 2000. "The German labour market and the unification shock," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 439-454, August.
- Scott, Alasdair, 2003. "APPLIED MACROECONOMETRICS Carlo A. Favero Oxford University Press, 2001," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(02), pages 313-315, April.
- Arntz, Melanie & Gregory, Terry & Lehmer, Florian, 2011.
"Unequal pay or unequal employment? What drives the skill-composition of labor flows in Germany?,"
ZEW Discussion Papers
11-074, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
- Arntz, Melanie & Gregory, Terry & Lehmer, Florian, 2012. "Unequal Pay or Unequal Employment? What Drives the Skill-Composition of Labor Flows in Germany?," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62309, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.