This paper analyzes the dynamic effects of different macroeconomic shocks on unemployment in Germany. In a first step, a cointegration analysis of productivity, prices, real wages, employment, and the unemployment rate reveals two long run relationships, interpreted as a labor demand and a wage setting scheme. Secondly, a structural VAR model is identified using the restrictions suggested by a single macroeconomic model. The impulse response analysis and the forecast error variance decomposition display that price, demand, and labor supply shocks affect unemployment significantly in the short/medium run. Interestingly, however, wage and technology shocks do not seem to play a dominant role. --
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Paper provided by ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research in its series ZEW Discussion Papers with number
01-41.
Find related papers by JEL classification: E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - General
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Carlton, Dennis W, 1986.
"The Rigidity of Prices,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 637-58, September.
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