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Sources of German unemployment : evidence from a structural VAR model

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Author Info
Linzert, Tobias

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Abstract

This paper analyzes the dynamic effects of different macroeconomic shocks on unemployment in Germany. In a first step, a cointegration analysis of productivity, prices, real wages, employment, and the unemployment rate reveals two long run relationships, interpreted as a labor demand and a wage setting scheme. Secondly, a structural VAR model is identified using the restrictions suggested by a single macroeconomic model. The impulse response analysis and the forecast error variance decomposition display that price, demand, and labor supply shocks affect unemployment significantly in the short/medium run. Interestingly, however, wage and technology shocks do not seem to play a dominant role. --

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research in its series ZEW Discussion Papers with number 01-41.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:5396

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Related research
Keywords: Unemployment; Structural VAR; Cointegration;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - General

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  1. Bean, Charles R, 1994. "European Unemployment: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(2), pages 573-619, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Hassler, Uwe & Wolters, Jurgen, 1995. "Long Memory in Inflation Rates: International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 37-45, January.
  3. Dolado, Juan J. & Jimeno, Juan F., 1997. "The causes of Spanish unemployment: A structural VAR approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1281-1307, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Doornik, Jurgen A & Hendry, David F & Nielsen, Bent, 1998. " Inference in Cointegrating Models: UK M1 Revisited," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(5), pages 533-72, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Hansen, Gerd, 2000. "The German labour market and the unification shock," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 439-454, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Blanchard, Olivier & Wolfers, Justin, 2000. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages C1-33, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Kai Carstensen & Gerd Hansen, 2000. "Cointegration and common trends on the West German labour market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 475-493. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Andersen, Torben M. & Hylleberg, Svend, 1998. "Wage Adjustment And Employment Persistency," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(04), pages 472-491, December. [Downloadable!]
  9. Ben S. Bernanke, 1986. "Alternative Explanations of the Money-Income Correlation," NBER Working Papers 1842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Lindbeck, Assar, 1992. "Macroeconomic theory and the labor market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(2-3), pages 209-235, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. repec:cup:macdyn:v:2:y:1998:i:4:p:472-91 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Favero, Carlo A. & Scott, Alasdair, 2003. "Applied Macroeconometrics," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(02), pages 313-315, April. [Downloadable!]
  13. Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1989. "A Traditional Interpretation of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1146-64, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Manning, Alan, 1993. "Wage Bargaining and the Phillips Curve: The Identification and Specification of Aggregate Wage Equations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 98-118, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Hunt, Jennifer, 1995. "The Effect of Unemployment Compensation on Unemployment Duration in Germany," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 13(1), pages 88-120, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1994. "Identification of the long-run and the short-run structure an application to the ISLM model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 7-36, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Carlton, Dennis W, 1986. "The Rigidity of Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 637-58, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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