External factors in emerging market recoveries: An empirical investigation
AbstractWe estimate conditional duration models to analyse recovery processes in emerging market economies. Our reduced form specification is parsimonious, as we focus on the effect of growth in the US, EU, and Japan on the prospects for economic recovery in emerging markets experiencing recessions. In order to assess the robustness and forecasting capability of our results, we performed out-of-sample predictions using recently available data pertaining to the economies hit by the Asian crisis. The results of this exercise show that external factors beyond the control of the authorities can sucessfully explain the bouncing back of most emerging markets economies hit by the Asian crisis.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal European Economic Review.
Volume (Year): 49 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 (April)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eer
Other versions of this item:
- Ricardo Mora & Georges Siotis, 2000. "External Factors in Emerging Market Recoveries: An Empirical Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1415, Econometric Society.
- C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
- E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
- F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
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