External factors in emerging market recoveries: An empirical investigation
Abstract
We estimate conditional duration models to analyse recovery processes in emerging market economies. Our reduced form specification is parsimonious, as we focus on the effect of growth in the US, EU, and Japan on the prospects for economic recovery in emerging markets experiencing recessions. In order to assess the robustness and forecasting capability of our results, we performed out-of-sample predictions using recently available data pertaining to the economies hit by the Asian crisis. The results of this exercise show that external factors beyond the control of the authorities can sucessfully explain the bouncing back of most emerging markets economies hit by the Asian crisis.(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
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Bibliographic Info
Article provided by Elsevier in its journal European Economic Review.
Volume (Year): 49 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 (April)
Pages: 683-702
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eer
Related research
Keywords:Other versions of this item:
- Ricardo Mora & Georges Siotis, 2000. "External Factors in Emerging Market Recoveries: An Empirical Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1415, Econometric Society.
- Mora, Ricardo & Siotis, Georges, 2005. "External factors in emerging market recoveries: An empirical investigation," Open Access publications from Universidad Carlos III de Madrid info:hdl:10016/5463, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid.
- C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
- E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
- F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
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Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- Ricardo Mora & Georges Siotis, 2000.
"External Factors in Emerging Market Recoveries: An Empirical Investigation,"
Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers
1415, Econometric Society.
- Mora, Ricardo & Siotis, Georges, 2005. "External factors in emerging market recoveries: An empirical investigation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 683-702, April.
- Mora, Ricardo & Siotis, Georges, 2005. "External factors in emerging market recoveries: An empirical investigation," Open Access publications from Universidad Carlos III de Madrid info:hdl:10016/5463, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid.
- Ricardo Hausmann & Francisco Rodríguez & Rodrigo Wagner, 2006.
"Growth Collapses,"
Wesleyan Economics Working Papers
2006-024, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
- Hausmann, Ricardo & Rodriguez, Francisco & Wagner, Rodrigo, 2006. "Growth Collapses," Working Paper Series rwp06-046, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
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