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Competition, Complementarity and Contagion in East Asia

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  • Diwan, Ishac
  • Hoekman, Bernard

Abstract

This paper explores to what extent the magnitude and speed of the contagion effects that materialized in East Asia in the second half of 1997 may have had "real" underpinnings, in the sense that the pattern of production, consumption and trade increased the vulnerability of East Asian countries to external shocks. Two major possibilities are investigated using available disaggregated data on intra- and extra-regional trade and direct investment: that Asian economies compete extensively with each other on world markets; or, to the contrary that Asia is best regarded as an integrated economy with countries specializing in complementary production. The data provide greater support for the latter hypothesis.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2112.

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Date of creation: Mar 1999
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2112

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Related research

Keywords: Contagion; East Asia; Financial Crisis; Interdependence; Regional Economic Integration;

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References

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  1. Shujiro Urata, 1993. "Japanese Foreign Direct Investment and Its Effect on Foreign Trade in Asia," NBER Chapters, in: Trade and Protectionism, NBER-EASE Volume 2, pages 273-304 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Lorenzo Giorgianni, 1997. "Determinants of Korean Trade Flows and their Geographical Destination," IMF Working Papers 97/54, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Anderson, Kym & Francois, Joseph, 1997. "Commercial Links Between Western Europe and East Asia: Retrospect and Prospects," CEPR Discussion Papers 1760, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Warwick J McKibbin & Will Martin, 1998. "The East Asian Crisis: Investigating Causes and Policy Responses," Departmental Working Papers 1998-06, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  5. Jeffrey Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 1996. "ASEAN in a regional perspective," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 96-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  6. Finger, J M & Kreinin, M E, 1979. "A Measure of 'Export Similarity' and Its Possible Uses," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 89(356), pages 905-12, December.
  7. Hoekman, Bernard & Djankov, Simeon, 1997. "Determinants of the Export Structure of Countries in Central and Eastern Europe," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 11(3), pages 471-87, September.
  8. Li-Gang Liu & Marcus Noland & Sherman Robinson & Zhi Wang, 1998. "Asian Competitive Devaluations," Working Paper Series wp98-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  9. Noland, Marcus, 1997. "Has Asian export performance been unique?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1-2), pages 79-101, August.
  10. Muscatelli, V. A. & Stevenson, A. A. & Montagna, C., 1994. "Intra-NIE competition in exports of manufactures," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1-2), pages 29-47, August.
  11. Jenny Corbett & David Vines, 1999. "Asian Currency and Financial Crises: Lessons from Vulnerability, Crisis and Collapse," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 155-177, 03.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Mora, Ricardo & Siotis, Georges, 2005. "External factors in emerging market recoveries: An empirical investigation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 683-702, April.
  2. Alan G. Ahearne & John G. Fernald & Prakash Loungani & John W. Schindler, 2003. "China and emerging Asia: comrades or competitors?," International Finance Discussion Papers 789, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Alan G. Ahearne & John G. Fernald & Prakash Loungani & John W. Schindler, 2006. "Flying geese or sitting ducks: China’s impact on the trading fortunes of other Asian economies," International Finance Discussion Papers 887, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Madani, Dorsati H., 2001. "Regional integration and industrial growth among developing countries - the case of three ASEAN members," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2697, The World Bank.
  5. Roberta De Santis, 2004. "Has Trade Structure Any Importance in the Trasmission of Currency Shocks? An Empirical Application for Central and Eastern European Acceding Countries to Eu," ISAE Working Papers 43, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).

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