The Breaks in per Capita Productivity Trends in a Number of Industrial Countries
AbstractThe purpose of this article is to study the trends in per capita productivity in several major industrialised countries. The analysis is first based on annual data over a long period spanning the entire 20th century for the United States, France and the United Kingdom. Productivity trends are then studied over a shorter period, using quarterly data, for the United States, France, the United Kingdom, Germany, Spain, Japan and the Netherlands. There are already a large number of studies of this kind, but they are too often focused on presenting average productivity growth rates for given periods chosen on an ad hoc basis. In this article, we use a robust statistical method to endogenously identify possible breaks in per capita productivity trends. This method, developed by Bai and Perron (1998), brings out the following salient features: – in the United States, per capita productivity growth accelerated following the trend break at the start of the 1920s, then slowed down at the end of the 1960s. This finding is in line with the “Big Wave” concept developed by Gordon (1999, 2002) to describe the trends in US productivity growth throughout the 20 th century. – French and UK productivity started catching up with that in the United States around the end of the Second World War. – Most of the countries under review recorded slower trend productivity growth in the first half of the 1970s. In the United States, this break occurred in 1966. This finding differs from that of other existing analyses, which point to 1974. – Trend productivity growth in Europe and Japan slowed in the 1990s, whereas US productivity gained momentum over the same period.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Banque de France in its series Working papers with number 111.
Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
Productivity trends ; Structural breaks ; Bai and Perron method;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- O47 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
- C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
- N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Stephen Broadberry & Nicholas Crafts, 2003. "UK productivity performance from 1950 to 1979: a restatement of the Broadberry-Crafts view ," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 56(4), pages 718-735, November.
- Gust, Christopher & Marquez, Jaime, 2004.
"International comparisons of productivity growth: the role of information technology and regulatory practices,"
Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 33-58, February.
- Christopher Gust & Jaime Marquez, 2002. "International comparisons of productivity growth: the role of information technology and regulatory practices," International Finance Discussion Papers 727, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995.
"Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes,"
Cahiers de recherche
9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
- Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Andrews, Donald W K, 1993.
"Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point,"
Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July.
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Basu, Susanto & Fernald, John G. & Shapiro, Matthew D., 2001.
"Productivity growth in the 1990s: technology, utilization, or adjustment?,"
Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,
Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 117-165, December.
- Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2001. "Productivity Growth in the 1990s: Technology, Utilization, or Adjustment?," NBER Working Papers 8359, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2001. "Productivity growth in the 1990s: technology, utilization, or adjustment," Working Paper Series WP-01-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Jean-Stephane Mesonnier & Jean-Paul Renne, 2004.
"A Time Varying Natural Rate of Interest for the Euro Area,"
Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004
42, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Mesonnier, Jean-Stephane & Renne, Jean-Paul, 2007. "A time-varying "natural" rate of interest for the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1768-1784, October.
- Bruno Tissot & Les Skoczylas, 2005. "Revisiting recent productivity developments across OECD countries," BIS Working Papers 182, Bank for International Settlements.
- van Norden, Simon, 2011.
"Current trends in the analysis of Canadian productivity growth,"
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 5-25, January.
- Simon van Norden, 2010. "Current Trends in the Analysis of Canadian Productivity Growth," CIRANO Working Papers 2010s-30, CIRANO.
- Clément Bosquet & Michel Fouquin, 2009. "Productivité du travail : les divergences entre pays développés sont-elles durables," Working Papers 2009-02, CEPII research center.
- Richard Dion & Robert Fay, 2008. "Understanding Productivity: A Review of Recent Technical Research," Discussion Papers 08-3, Bank of Canada.
- Mésonnier, J-S. & Renne, J-P., 2004. "A Time-Varying Natural Rate for the Euro Area," Working papers 115, Banque de France.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marie-Christine Petit-Djemad).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.