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Changes in the order of integration of US and UK inflation

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  • Andreea Halunga
  • Denise Osborn
  • Marianne Sensier

Abstract

Employing the modified tests of Harvey, Leybourne and Taylor [Harvey, D.I., Leybourne, S.J. and Taylor, A.M.R., 2006. Modified tests for a change in persistence. Journal of Econometrics 134, 441-469.] for a single change in persistence and repartitioning the sample when a break is found, this paper shows that US and UK inflation changes from I(0) to I(1) in the early 1970s, with a subsequent reversion to I(0) behaviour, compatible with modern macroeconomic theories, in the early 1980s.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Economics, The University of Manchester in its series The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series with number 0715.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:man:sespap:0715

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  1. Busetti, Fabio & Taylor, A. M. Robert, 2004. "Tests of stationarity against a change in persistence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 33-66, November.
  2. Andrew Levin & Jeremy Piger, 2003. "Is Inflation Persistence Intrinsic in Industrial Economies?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 298, Society for Computational Economics.
  3. Giuseppe Cavaliere & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2006. "Testing for a Change in Persistence in the Presence of a Volatility Shift," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(s1), pages 761-781, December.
  4. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting output and inflation: the role of asset prices," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  5. Kim, Jae-Young, 2000. "Detection of change in persistence of a linear time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 97-116, March.
  6. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2006. "Modified tests for a change in persistence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 441-469, October.
  7. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
  8. Filippo Altissimo & Laurent Bilke & Andrew Levin & Thomas Mathä & Benoit Mojon, 2006. "Sectoral and Aggregate Inflation Dynamics in the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 585-593, 04-05.
  9. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Guy Debelle, 2006. "Has the inflation process changed?," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 21(46), pages 311-352, 04.
  10. Bai, Jushan, 1997. "Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(03), pages 315-352, June.
  11. Martin Evans & Paul Wachtel, 1993. "Inflation regimes and the sources of inflation uncertainty," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 475-520.
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Cited by:
  1. Andrew Phiri, 2012. "Threshold effects and inflation persistence in South Africa," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 4(3), pages 247-269, August.
  2. Çatık, A. Nazif & Martin, Christopher, 2012. "Macroeconomic transitions and the transmission mechanism: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1440-1449.
  3. Bill Russell & Anindya Banerjee & Issam Malki & Natalia Ponomareva, 2010. "A Multiple Break Panel Approach to Estimating United States Phillips Curves," Discussion Papers 10-14, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  4. Charemza, Wojciech & Makarova, Svetlana, 2009. "Nonlinear Inflationary Persistence and Growth: Theory and Empirical Comparative Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 6(2), pages 5-22, June.
  5. Luis F. Martins & Paulo M.M. Rodrigues, 2010. "Testing for Persistence Change in Fractionally Integrated Models: An Application to World Inflation Rates," Working Papers w201030, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  6. Uwe Hassler & Jan Scheithauer, 2011. "Detecting changes from short to long memory," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 847-870, November.

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