IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/intfor/v35y2019i4p1725-1734.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Macroeconomic news and market reaction: Surprise indexes meet nowcasting

Author

Listed:
  • Caruso, Alberto

Abstract

Market operators monitor a massive flow of macroeconomic news every day and react to the unexpected component of each release. Can we replicate the market’s pricing of macroeconomic news automatically? This paper shows that a “Nowcasting Surprise Index”, constructed by aggregating forecast errors from a nowcasting model using model-based weights, resembles the surprise indexes proposed in the recent literature or constructed by practitioners, which cumulate survey-based forecast errors weighted by using the average effect of news on asset prices. This suggests that market operators and a nowcasting model filter the macroeconomic data flow similarly and confirms the link between news about macroeconomic indicators and asset prices. Moreover, the paper shows that recent cumulated news in macroeconomic data, which carry information about the underlying state of the economy, accounts for a non-negligible part of asset price behaviour.

Suggested Citation

  • Caruso, Alberto, 2019. "Macroeconomic news and market reaction: Surprise indexes meet nowcasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1725-1734.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:35:y:2019:i:4:p:1725-1734
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.12.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207019300135
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.12.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Roberto S. Mariano & Yasutomo Murasawa, 2003. "A new coincident index of business cycles based on monthly and quarterly series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 427-443.
    2. Altavilla, Carlo & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele, 2017. "Low frequency effects of macroeconomic news on government bond yields," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 31-46.
    3. Eric T. Swanson & John C. Williams, 2013. "Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Yields and Exchange Rates in the U.K. and Germany," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2013, pages 2-21, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Jacob A. Mincer & Victor Zarnowitz, 1969. "The Evaluation of Economic Forecasts," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance, pages 3-46, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Small, David, 2008. "Nowcasting: The real-time informational content of macroeconomic data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 665-676, May.
    6. Liebermann, Joëlle, 2012. "Short-term forecasting of quarterly gross domestic product growth," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 74-84, February.
    7. G. Rünstler & K. Barhoumi & S. Benk & R. Cristadoro & A. Den Reijer & A. Jakaitiene & P. Jelonek & A. Rua & K. Ruth & C. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2009. "Short-term forecasting of GDP using large datasets: a pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(7), pages 595-611.
    8. Simpson, Marc W. & Ramchander, Sanjay & Chaudhry, Mukesh, 2005. "The impact of macroeconomic surprises on spot and forward foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 693-718, September.
    9. Sean P. Grover & Kevin L. Kliesen & Michael W. McCracken, 2016. "A Macroeconomic News Index for Constructing Nowcasts of U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product Growth," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 98(4), pages 277-296.
    10. Bragoli, Daniela, 2017. "Now-casting the Japanese economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 390-402.
    11. Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2010. "Are disaggregate data useful for factor analysis in forecasting French GDP?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 132-144.
    12. Lahiri, Kajal & Monokroussos, George, 2013. "Nowcasting US GDP: The role of ISM business surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 644-658.
    13. Daniela Bragoli & Luca Metelli & Michele Modugno, 2015. "The importance of updating: Evidence from a Brazilian nowcasting model," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2015(1), pages 5-22.
    14. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Simonelli, Saverio, 2009. "Nowcasting Euro Area Economic Activity in Real Time: The Role of Confidence Indicators," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 210, pages 90-97, October.
    15. Linda S. Goldberg & Dr. Christian Grisse, 2013. "Time variation in asset price responses to macro announcements," Working Papers 2013-11, Swiss National Bank.
    16. Gabriele Galati & Corrinne Ho, 2003. "Macroeconomic News and the Euro/Dollar Exchange Rate," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 32(3), pages 371-398, November.
    17. Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2010. "Factor MIDAS for Nowcasting and Forecasting with Ragged‐Edge Data: A Model Comparison for German GDP," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(4), pages 518-550, August.
    18. Catherine Doz & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2012. "A Quasi–Maximum Likelihood Approach for Large, Approximate Dynamic Factor Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1014-1024, November.
    19. Caruso, Alberto, 2018. "Nowcasting with the help of foreign indicators: The case of Mexico," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 160-168.
    20. Bańbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2013. "Now-Casting and the Real-Time Data Flow," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 195-237, Elsevier.
    21. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    22. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 425-436, March.
    23. Hardouvelis, Gikas A., 1988. "Economic news, exchange rates and interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 23-35, March.
    24. Lutz Kilian & Clara Vega, 2011. "Do Energy Prices Respond to U.S. Macroeconomic News? A Test of the Hypothesis of Predetermined Energy Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(2), pages 660-671, May.
    25. Matheson, Troy D., 2010. "An analysis of the informational content of New Zealand data releases: The importance of business opinion surveys," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 304-314, January.
    26. Modugno, Michele & Soybilgen, Barış & Yazgan, Ege, 2016. "Nowcasting Turkish GDP and news decomposition," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1369-1384.
    27. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H. & Wang, Shing-Yi B. & Wright, Jonathan H., 2007. "The high-frequency response of exchange rates and interest rates to macroeconomic announcements," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1051-1068, May.
    28. Bragoli, Daniela & Modugno, Michele, 2017. "A now-casting model for Canada: Do U.S. variables matter?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 786-800.
    29. Daniela Bragoli & Jack Fosten, 2018. "Nowcasting Indian GDP," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 80(2), pages 259-282, April.
    30. Pearce, Douglas K. & Solakoglu, M. Nihat, 2007. "Macroeconomic news and exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 307-325, October.
    31. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & David H. Small, 2005. "Nowcasting GDP and inflation: the real-time informational content of macroeconomic data releases," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    32. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2003. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 38-62, March.
    33. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2005. "Exchange rates and fundamentals: new evidence from real-time data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 317-341, March.
    34. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Jonathan H. Wright, 2013. "Identification and Inference Using Event Studies," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81, pages 48-65, September.
    35. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November.
    36. Ghysels, Eric & Wright, Jonathan H., 2009. "Forecasting Professional Forecasters," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 504-516.
    37. Unknown, 2005. "Forward," 2005 Conference: Slovenia in the EU - Challenges for Agriculture, Food Science and Rural Affairs, November 10-11, 2005, Moravske Toplice, Slovenia 183804, Slovenian Association of Agricultural Economists (DAES).
    38. Knut Aastveit & Tørres Trovik, 2012. "Nowcasting norwegian GDP: the role of asset prices in a small open economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 95-119, February.
    39. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Elton, Edwin J. & Green, T. Clifton, 2001. "Economic News and Bond Prices: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(4), pages 523-543, December.
    40. Scotti, Chiara, 2016. "Surprise and uncertainty indexes: Real-time aggregation of real-activity macro-surprises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1-19.
    41. Gilbert, Thomas & Scotti, Chiara & Strasser, Georg & Vega, Clara, 2017. "Is the intrinsic value of a macroeconomic news announcement related to its asset price impact?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 78-95.
    42. Almeida, Alvaro & Goodhart, Charles & Payne, Richard, 1998. "The Effects of Macroeconomic News on High Frequency Exchange Rate Behavior," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(3), pages 383-408, September.
    43. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2007. "Real-time price discovery in global stock, bond and foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 251-277, November.
    44. Marta Bańbura & Michele Modugno, 2014. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation Of Factor Models On Datasets With Arbitrary Pattern Of Missing Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 133-160, January.
    45. G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), 2013. "Handbook of Economic Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 2, number 2.
    46. Stock J.H. & Watson M.W., 2002. "Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1167-1179, December.
    47. Alberto Caruso, 2016. "The Impact of Macroeconomic News on the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2016-32, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Julio E. Sandubete & León Beleña & Juan Carlos García-Villalobos, 2023. "Testing the Efficient Market Hypothesis and the Model-Data Paradox of Chaos on Top Currencies from the Foreign Exchange Market (FOREX)," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-29, January.
    2. Salisu, Afees A. & Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan, 2022. "Out-of-sample predictability of gold market volatility: The role of US Nonfarm Payroll," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 482-488.
    3. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Andreini, Paolo & Hasenzagl, Thomas & Senftleben-König, Charlotte & Strohsal, Till, 2020. "Nowcasting German GDP," CEPR Discussion Papers 14323, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Andreini, Paolo & Hasenzagl, Thomas & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Senftleben-König, Charlotte & Strohsal, Till, 2023. "Nowcasting German GDP: Foreign factors, financial markets, and model averaging," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 298-313.
    5. Lukasz Mach & Dariusz Zmarzly & Ireneusz Dabrowski & Pawel Fracz, 2020. "Comparison on Subannual Seasonality of Building Construction in European Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 241-257.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Caruso, Alberto, 2018. "Nowcasting with the help of foreign indicators: The case of Mexico," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 160-168.
    2. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Domenico Giannone & Michele Modugno, 2021. "Back to the Present: Learning about the Euro Area through a Now-casting Model," International Finance Discussion Papers 1313, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Matteo Luciani & Michele Modugno, 2023. "Lessons from Nowcasting GDP across the World," International Finance Discussion Papers 1385, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Bragoli, Daniela & Modugno, Michele, 2017. "A now-casting model for Canada: Do U.S. variables matter?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 786-800.
    5. Kaufmann, Daniel & Scheufele, Rolf, 2017. "Business tendency surveys and macroeconomic fluctuations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 878-893.
    6. Bańbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2013. "Now-Casting and the Real-Time Data Flow," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 195-237, Elsevier.
    7. Dahlhaus, Tatjana & Guénette, Justin-Damien & Vasishtha, Garima, 2017. "Nowcasting BRIC+M in real time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 915-935.
    8. Rusnák, Marek, 2016. "Nowcasting Czech GDP in real time," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 26-39.
    9. Bragoli, Daniela, 2017. "Now-casting the Japanese economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 390-402.
    10. Matteo Luciani & Madhavi Pundit & Arief Ramayandi & Giovanni Veronese, 2018. "Nowcasting Indonesia," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 597-619, September.
    11. Matteo Luciani & Lorenzo Ricci, 2014. "Nowcasting Norway," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(4), pages 215-248, December.
    12. Andreini, Paolo & Hasenzagl, Thomas & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Senftleben-König, Charlotte & Strohsal, Till, 2023. "Nowcasting German GDP: Foreign factors, financial markets, and model averaging," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 298-313.
    13. Alberto Caruso, 2015. "Nowcasting Mexican GDP," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2015-40, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    14. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther & Miranda, Karen, 2021. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: This is not just another survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1399-1425.
    15. Thomas Gilbert & Chiara Scotti & Georg Strasser & Clara Vega, 2015. "Is the Intrinsic Value of Macroeconomic News Announcements Related to their Asset Price Impact?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-46, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Brandyn Bok & Daniele Caratelli & Domenico Giannone & Argia M. Sbordone & Andrea Tambalotti, 2018. "Macroeconomic Nowcasting and Forecasting with Big Data," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 615-643, August.
    17. Chudik, Alexander & Grossman, Valerie & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2016. "A multi-country approach to forecasting output growth using PMIs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 349-365.
    18. Raïsa Basselier & David Antonio Liedo & Geert Langenus, 2018. "Nowcasting Real Economic Activity in the Euro Area: Assessing the Impact of Qualitative Surveys," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 14(1), pages 1-46, April.
    19. Alberto Caruso, 2016. "The Impact of Macroeconomic News on the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2016-32, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    20. Chernis, Tony & Cheung, Calista & Velasco, Gabriella, 2020. "A three-frequency dynamic factor model for nowcasting Canadian provincial GDP growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 851-872.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:35:y:2019:i:4:p:1725-1734. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.