Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

The Fed's reaction to the stock market during the great depression: Fact or artefact?

Contents:

Author Info

  • Siklos, Pierre L.

Abstract

A notable feature of the 1920s and 1930s is the volatility in several key macroeconomic aggregates, and this feature used to econometrically identify the reaction of the Fed to stock market developments. The volatility of economic activity may have contributed to deepening the divisions among policy-makers about how the Fed ought to respond to stock price developments. Relying on the technique of [Rigobon, R. 2003. Identification through heteroskedasticity. Review of Economics and Statistics 85, 777-792], volatility is used as an instrument to estimate the Fed's response to the stock market. Other identification assumptions based on structural VARs produce compatible results. Fed behavior appeared to have changed following the stock market crash of 1929. Consistent with the Riefler-Burgess doctrine, interest rates and stock returns are negatively related. I conclude that, prior to the stock market crash of 1929, a form of benign neglect explains Fed behavior. Thereafter, the Fed reacts only slightly more aggressively to stock market developments.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6WFJ-4PP2CYG-1/1/40921a5ba6424c4e9e9d70ec80cc818e
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Explorations in Economic History.

Volume (Year): 45 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 164-184

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:eee:exehis:v:45:y:2008:i:2:p:164-184

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622830

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Willem Thorbecke, 1998. "On Stock Market Returns and Monetary Policy," Macroeconomics 9812009, EconWPA.
  2. Romer, Christina D., 1992. "What Ended the Great Depression?," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(04), pages 757-784, December.
  3. Rappoport, Peter & White, Eugene N, 1994. "Was the Crash of 1929 Expected?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 271-81, March.
  4. Perry Mehrling, 2002. "Retrospectives: Economists and the Fed: Beginnings," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 207-218, Fall.
  5. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2003. "Measuring The Reaction Of Monetary Policy To The Stock Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(2), pages 639-669, May.
  6. Martha L. Olney, 1999. "Avoiding Default: The Role Of Credit In The Consumption Collapse Of 1930," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 319-335, February.
  7. Marc Paolo Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2003. "How forward-looking is optimal monetary policy?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1425-1483.
  8. Michael D. Bordo & Ehsan U. Choudhri & Anna J. Schwartz, 1999. "Was Expansionary Monetary Policy Feasible During the Great Contraction? An Examination of the Gold Standard Constraint," NBER Working Papers 7125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Ramey, Valerie A & Francis, Neville, 2002. "Is The Technology-Driven Real Business Cycle Hypothesis Dead? Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations Revisted," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt6x80k3nx, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  10. Ray C. Fair & Matthew D. Shapiro & Kathryn M. Dominguez, 1986. "Forecasting the Depression: Harvard Versus Yale," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 808, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  11. Christina D. Romer, 1988. "The Great Crash and the Onset of the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 2639, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1996. "Do measures of monetary policy in a VAR make sense?," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 96-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  13. Thomas M. Humphrey, 2001. "Monetary policy frameworks and indicators for the Federal Reserve in the 1920s," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Win, pages 65-92.
  14. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting output and inflation: the role of asset prices," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  15. Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identification Through Heteroskedasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 777-792, November.
  16. Eugene N. White, 2006. "Bubbles and Busts: The 1990s in the Mirror of the 1920s," NBER Working Papers 12138, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Stock, James H & Wright, Jonathan H & Yogo, Motohiro, 2002. "A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Identification in Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 518-29, October.
  18. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1998. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense? A Reply," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 943-48, November.
  19. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1.
  20. Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2003. "The 1929 stock market: Irving Fisher was right," Staff Report 294, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  21. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-76, June.
  22. Athanasios Orphanides, 2003. "Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-36, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  23. Bohl, Martin T. & Siklos, Pierre L. & Werner, Thomas, 2007. "Do central banks react to the stock market? The case of the Bundesbank," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 719-733, March.
  24. James S. Fackler & Randall E. Parker, 2005. "Was Debt Deflation Operative during the Great Depression?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 43(1), pages 67-78, January.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. David Grreasley, 2010. "Cliometrics and Time Series Econometrics: Some Theory and Applications," Working Papers in Economics 10/56, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:exehis:v:45:y:2008:i:2:p:164-184

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wendy Shamier).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.