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Estimating Potential Output And The Output Gap For Brazil

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  • Carlos Hamilton Vasconcelos Araujo
  • Marta Baltar Moreira Areosa
  • Osmani Teixera de Carvalho Guillén

Abstract

This paper aims to estimate output gap for Brazilian economy through di.erents methodolies. We use traditional univariate techniques and propose a new semi-estructural methodology that combines HP filtering and the production function approach. In order to compare the di.erent potential output estimates, we use a Phillips curve to predict free price inflation and a rolling forecast experiment as a test of forecast accuracy. Our results shows that the forecasts produced by the Local level and Watson models are even more inaccurate than those generated by the simplest univariate models. The main evidence is that the Beveridge-Nelson methodology outperforms all the models at all forecast horizons.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Hamilton Vasconcelos Araujo & Marta Baltar Moreira Areosa & Osmani Teixera de Carvalho Guillén, 2004. "Estimating Potential Output And The Output Gap For Brazil," Anais do XXXII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 32nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 041, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    • Handle: RePEc:anp:en2004:041
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Arruda, Elano Ferreira & Ferreira, Roberto Tatiwa & Castelar, Ivan, 2011. "Modelos Lineares e Não Lineares da Curva de Phillips para Previsão da Taxa de Inflação no Brasil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 65(3), September.
    2. Leandro Nascimento Brito & Elcyon Caiado Rocha Lima, 2008. "Inflação e Nível de Atividade no Brasil: Estimativas via Curva de Phillips," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807211039560, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    3. Elaine Cristina de Piza & Joilson Dias, 2006. "Novo Consenso Macroeconômico E Política Monetária No Brasil: Uma Avaliação Empírica," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 164, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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