Modelling Mortgage Rate Changes with a Smooth Transition Error-Correction Model
AbstractThis paper uses a smooth transition error-correction model (STECM) to model the one-year and five-year mortgage rate changes. The model allows for a non-linear adjustment process of mortgage rates towards their long-run equilibrium. We also introduce time-varying thresholds into the standard STECM specification, to capture the gradual structural changes in the error-correction term. We find that the STECM, whether with fixed or time-varying thresholds, yields better in-sample fit and lower forecast errors than the linear benchmark and univariate models. Our estimation results indicate non-linearities in the adjustment process of mortgage rates towards their long-run equilibria. In particular, we find that mortgage rates respond more significantly to a large than to a small disequilibrium. The improvement of the STECMs in forecasting is statistically significant over the univariate models, but insignificant over the linear model.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 01-23.
Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 2001
Date of revision:
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Econometric and statistical methods; Interest rates;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other
- E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2002-01-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-ETS-2002-01-05 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-FMK-2002-01-05 (Financial Markets)
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