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Mutual fund flows and fluctuations in credit and business cycles

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  • Ben-Rephael, Azi
  • Choi, Jaewon
  • Goldstein, Itay

Abstract

Several measures of credit-market booms are known to precede downturns in real economic activity. We offer an early indicator for all known measures of credit booms. Our measure is based on intra-family flow shifts towards high-yield bond mutual funds. It predicts indicators such as growth in financial intermediary balance sheets, increase in shares of high-yield bond issuers, and downturns of various measures of credit spreads. It also directly predicts the business cycle by positively predicting GDP growth and negatively predicting unemployment. Our results provide support for the investor demand-based narrative of credit cycles and can be useful for policymakers.

Suggested Citation

  • Ben-Rephael, Azi & Choi, Jaewon & Goldstein, Itay, 2021. "Mutual fund flows and fluctuations in credit and business cycles," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 84-108.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:139:y:2021:i:1:p:84-108
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2020.07.004
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    Cited by:

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    2. Arun Gupta & Horacio Sapriza, 2022. "Do Costly Internal Equity Injections Reveal Bank Expectations about Post-Crisis Real Outcomes?," Working Paper 23-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    3. Iñaki Aldasoro & Peter Hördahl & Sonya Zhu, 2022. "Under pressure: market conditions and stress," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    4. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi & Emil Verner, 2017. "Household Debt and Business Cycles Worldwide," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(4), pages 1755-1817.
    5. di Iasio, Giovanni & Kaufmann, Christoph & Wicknig, Florian, 2022. "Macroprudential regulation of investment funds," Working Paper Series 2695, European Central Bank.
    6. Zhu, Qifei, 2021. "Capital supply and corporate bond issuances: Evidence from mutual fund flows," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 551-572.
    7. Darmouni, Olivier & Papoutsi, Melina, 2022. "The rise of bond financing in Europe: five facts about new and small issuers," Working Paper Series 2663, European Central Bank.
    8. Choi, Jaewon & Dasgupta, Amil & Oh, Ji, 2022. "Bond funds and credit risk," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118856, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Pascal François & Stephanie Heck & Georges Hübner & Thomas Lejeune, 2022. "Comoment risk in corporate bond yields and returns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 471-512, September.
    10. Dang, Thuy Duong & Hollstein, Fabian & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2022. "How do corporate bond investors measure performance? Evidence from mutual fund flows," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    11. Park, Heungju & Sohn, Sungbin, 2021. "Flight to quality and implicit guarantee: Evidence from Chinese trust products," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 399-419.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit cycle; Business cycle; Mutual fund flows; High-yield bonds; Investor demand; Leading indicator;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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