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The impact of risk cycles on business cycles: a historical view

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  • Danielsson, Jon
  • Valenzuela, Marcela
  • Zer, Ilknur

Abstract

We investigate the effects of financial risk cycles on business cycles, using a panel spanning 73 countries since 1900. Agents use a Bayesian learning model to form their beliefs about risk. We construct a proxy of these beliefs and show that perceived low risk encourages risk-taking, augmenting growth at the cost of accumulating financial vulnerabilities, and, therefore, a reversal in growth follows. The reversal is particularly pronounced when the low-risk environment persists and credit growth is excessive. Global risk cycles have a stronger effect on growth than local risk cycles via their impact on capital flows, investment, and debt-issuer quality.

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  • Danielsson, Jon & Valenzuela, Marcela & Zer, Ilknur, 2022. "The impact of risk cycles on business cycles: a historical view," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117384, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:117384
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    stock market volatility; uncertainty; monetary policy independance; financial instability; risk-taking; global financial cycles; ES/K002309/1; OUP deal;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative

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