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Liquidity, Default and Crashes: Endogenous Contracts in General Equilibrium

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Author Info
John Geanakoplos () (Cowles Foundation, Yale University)
Abstract

The possibility of default limits available liquidity. If the potential default draws nearer, a liquidity crisis may ensue, causing a crash in asset prices, even if the probability of default barely changes, and even if no defaults subsequently materialize. Introducing default and limited collateral into general equilibrium theory (GE) allows for a theory of endogenous contracts, including endogenous margin requirements on loans. This in turn allows GE to explain liquidity and liquidity crises in equilibrium. A formal definition of liquidity is presented. When new information raises the probability and shortens the horizon over which a fixed income asset may default, its drop in price may be much greater than its objective drop in value for two reasons: the drop in value reduces the relative wealth of its natural buyers and also endogenously raises the margin required for its purchase. The liquidity premium rises, and there may be spillovers in which other assets crash in price even though their probability of default did not change.

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File URL: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d13a/d1316.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Cowles Foundation, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1316.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2001
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Advances in Economics and Econometrics, Vol. II, edited by M. Dewabtripont, L.P. Hansen and S.J. Turnovsky, 2003
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1316

Note: CFP 1074
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Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

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Related research
Keywords: Liquidity; default; collateral; crashes; general equilibrium; contracts; spillover; liquidity premium;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D4 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure and Pricing
D5 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium
D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
D41 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure and Pricing - - - Perfect Competition
D52 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Incomplete Markets
D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Smith, Vernon L, 1972. "Default Risk, Scale, and the Homemade Leverage Theorem," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 66-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
    Other versions:
  3. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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