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Factor Timing

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Listed:
  • Valentin Haddad
  • Serhiy Kozak
  • Shrihari Santosh

Abstract

The optimal factor timing portfolio is equivalent to the stochastic discount factor. We propose and implement a method to characterize both empirically. Our approach imposes restrictions on the dynamics of expected returns which lead to an economically plausible SDF. Market-neutral equity factors are strongly and robustly predictable. Exploiting this predictability leads to substantial improvement in portfolio performance relative to static factor investing. The variance of the corresponding SDF is larger, more variable over time, and exhibits different cyclical behavior than estimates ignoring this fact. These results pose new challenges for theories that aim to match the cross-section of stock returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Valentin Haddad & Serhiy Kozak & Shrihari Santosh, 2020. "Factor Timing," NBER Working Papers 26708, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26708
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    Cited by:

    1. de Oliveira Souza, Thiago, 2019. "Macro-finance and factor timing: Time-varying factor risk and price of risk premiums," Discussion Papers on Economics 7/2019, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Economics.
    2. Cho, Thummim, 2020. "Turning alphas into betas: arbitrage and endogenous risk," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102085, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Mikhail Chernov & Lars A Lochstoer & Stig R H Lundeby, 2022. "Conditional Dynamics and the Multihorizon Risk-Return Trade-Off," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(3), pages 1310-1347.
    4. G Andrew Karolyi & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2020. "New Methods for the Cross-Section of Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(5), pages 1879-1890.
    5. Cho, Thummim, 2020. "Turning alphas into betas: Arbitrage and endogenous risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(2), pages 550-570.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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