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Supply shocks, demand shocks, and labor market fluctuations

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Author Info

  • Helge Braun
  • Reinout De Bock
  • Riccardo DiCecio

Abstract

The authors use structural vector autoregressions to analyze the responses of worker flows, job flows, vacancies, and hours to demand and supply shocks. They identify these shocks by restricting the short-run responses of output and the price level. On the demand side, they disentangle a monetary and nonmonetary shock by restricting the response of the interest rate. The responses of labor market variables are similar across shocks: Expansionary shocks increase job creation, the job-finding rate, vacancies, and hours; and they decrease job destruction and the separation rate. Supply shocks have more persistent effects than demand shocks. Demand and supply shocks are equally important in driving business cycle fluctuations of labor market variables. The authors' findings for demand shocks are robust to alternative identification schemes involving the response of labor productivity at different horizons. Supply shocks identified by restricting productivity generate a higher fraction of impulse responses inconsistent with standard search and matching models.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its journal Review.

Volume (Year): (2009)
Issue (Month): May ()
Pages: 155-178

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2009:i:may:p:155-178:n:v.91no.3

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Related research

Keywords: Labor supply ; Labor market ; Business cycles;

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References

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  1. Mortensen, Dale T. & Nagypál, Éva, 2005. "More on Unemployment and Vacancy Fluctuations," IZA Discussion Papers 1765, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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  5. Jordi Galí, 2004. "On The Role of Technology Shocks as a Source of Business Cycles: Some New Evidence," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(2-3), pages 372-380, 04/05.
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  7. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2003. "Stock Prices, News and Economic Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 3844, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. John Haltiwanger & Steven J. Davis, 1999. "On the Driving Forces behind Cyclical Movements in Employment and Job Reallocation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1234-1258, December.
  9. Galí, Jordi, 1996. "Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1499, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2002. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Working Papers 9127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  13. John Shea, 1999. "What Do Technology Shocks Do?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1998, volume 13, pages 275-322 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. R. Jason Faberman, 2004. "Gross Job Flows over the Past Two Business Cycles: Not all 'Recoveries' are Created Equal," Working Papers 372, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  15. Gert Peersman, 2005. "What caused the early millennium slowdown? Evidence based on vector autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 185-207.
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  18. Davis, Steven J. & Haltiwanger, John, 1999. "Gross job flows," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 41, pages 2711-2805 Elsevier.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Javier Ordóñez & Hector Sala & José I. Silva, 2011. "Oil Price Shocks and Labor Market Fluctuations," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 89-118.
  2. Fabio Canova & David Lopez-Salido & Claudio Michelacci, 2009. "The ins and outs of unemployment: An analysis conditional on technology shocks," Economics Working Papers 1213, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jan 2012.
  3. Hertweck Matthias Sebastian, 2013. "Strategic wage bargaining, labor market volatility, and persistence," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 27, October.
  4. Nordmeier, Daniela & Weber, Enzo, 2013. "Conditional Patterns of Unemployment Dynamics in Germany," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79958, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  5. Nordmeier, Daniela & Weber, Enzo, 2013. "Patterns of unemployment dynamics in Germany," IAB Discussion Paper 201302, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  6. Elena Vakulenko, 2013. "Labour Market Analysis using Time Series Models: Russia 1999-2011," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 120/2013, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia, Finanza e Statistica.

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