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Supply shocks, demand shocks, and labor market fluctuations

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Author Info
Helge Braun
Reinout De Bock
Riccardo DiCecio

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Abstract

The authors use structural vector autoregressions to analyze the responses of worker flows, job flows, vacancies, and hours to demand and supply shocks. They identify these shocks by restricting the short-run responses of output and the price level. On the demand side, they disentangle a monetary and nonmonetary shock by restricting the response of the interest rate. The responses of labor market variables are similar across shocks: Expansionary shocks increase job creation, the job-finding rate, vacancies, and hours; and they decrease job destruction and the separation rate. Supply shocks have more persistent effects than demand shocks. Demand and supply shocks are equally important in driving business cycle fluctuations of labor market variables. The authors' findings for demand shocks are robust to alternative identification schemes involving the response of labor productivity at different horizons. Supply shocks identified by restricting productivity generate a higher fraction of impulse responses inconsistent with standard search and matching models.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its journal Review.

Volume (Year): (2009)
Issue (Month): May ()
Pages: 155-178
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2009:i:may:p:155-178:n:v.91no.3

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Related research
Keywords: Labor supply ; Labor market ; Business cycles;

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References listed on IDEAS
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  2. Shigeru Fujita, 2004. "Vacancy persistence," Working Papers 04-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
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  3. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2002. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Working Papers 9127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Gert Peersman, . "What caused the early millennium slowdown? Evidence based on vector autoregressions," Bank of England working papers 272, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Jordi Gali, 1999. "Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 249-271, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Mortensen, Dale T & Pissarides, Christopher A, 1994. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 61(3), pages 397-415, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Robert Shimer, 2004. "The Consequences of Rigid Wages in Search Models," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(2-3), pages 469-479, 04/05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Davis, Steven J & Haltiwanger, John C, 1992. "Gross Job Creation, Gross Job Destruction, and Employment Reallocation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(3), pages 819-63, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2004. "Stock Prices, News and Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 10548, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Jordi Galí, 2004. "On The Role of Technology Shocks as a Source of Business Cycles: Some New Evidence," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(2-3), pages 372-380, 04/05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Robert Shimer, 2007. "Reassessing the Ins and Outs of Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 13421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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