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Tracking Chinese CPI inflation in real time

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  • Funke, Michael
  • Mehrotra, Aaron
  • Yu, Hao

Abstract

With recovery from the global financial crisis in 2009 and 2010, inflation emerged as a major concern for many central banks in emerging Asia. We use data observed at mixed frequencies to estimate the movement of Chinese headline inflation within the framework of a state-space model, and then take the estimated indicator to nowcast Chinese CPI inflation. The importance of forward-looking and high-frequency variables in tracking inflation dynamics is highlighted and the policy implications discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Funke, Michael & Mehrotra, Aaron & Yu, Hao, 2011. "Tracking Chinese CPI inflation in real time," BOFIT Discussion Papers 35/2011, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofitp:bdp2011_035
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    5. Ting-Ting Sun & Chi-Wei Su & Ran Tao & Meng Qin, 2021. "Are Agricultural Commodity Prices on a Conventional Wisdom with Inflation?," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(3), pages 21582440211, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nowcasting; CPI inflation cycle; mixed-frequency modelling; dynamic factor model; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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