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U.S. Domestic Money, Inflation and Output

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Author Info
Yunus Aksoy (School of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics, Birkbeck)
Tomasz Piskorski

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Abstract

Recent empirical research documents that the strong short-term relationship between U.S. monetary aggregates on one side and inflation and real output on the other has mostly disappeared since the early 1980s. Using the direct estimate of flows of USD abroad we find that domestic money (currency corrected for the foreign holdings of dollars) contains valuable information about future movements of U.S. inflation and real output. Statistical evidence suggests that the Friedman-Schwartz stylized facts can be reestablished once the focus of analysis is back on the correct measure of domestic monetary aggregates.

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File URL: http://www.ems.bbk.ac.uk/research/wp/PDF/BWPEF0506.pdf
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File Function: First version, 2005
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Paper provided by Birkbeck, School of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics in its series Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance with number 0506.

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Date of creation: Feb 2005
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Handle: RePEc:bbk:bbkefp:0506

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Related research
Keywords: foreign holdings domestic money monetary aggregates information value

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1996. "A price target for U.S. monetary policy? Lessons from the experience with money growth targets," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 96-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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  3. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting output and inflation: the role of asset prices," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
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  5. Richard G. Anderson & Robert H. Rasche, 2000. "The domestic adjusted monetary base," Working Papers 2000-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  6. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "Is there a role for monetary aggregates in the conduct of monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 279-304, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Edgar L. Feige, 2005. "Overseas Holdings Of U.S.Currency And The Underground Economy," Macroeconomics 0501022, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  8. Brian M. Doyle, 2000. ""Here, dollars, dollars ..."estimating currency demand and worldwide currency substitution," International Finance Discussion Papers 657, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  9. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-21, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Friedman, Benjamin M & Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1992. "Money, Income, Prices, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 472-92, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
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  1. Carlos Esteban Posada & Andrés Felipe García, . "¿No importa la cantidad de dinero?: "Inflation Targeting" y la teoría cuantitativa," Borradores de Economia 403, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Yunus Aksoy & Miguel León-Ledesma, 2004. "Interest Rates and Output in the Long-run," Studies in Economics 0409, Department of Economics, University of Kent. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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