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"Here, dollars, dollars ..."estimating currency demand and worldwide currency substitution

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Brian M. Doyle

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Abstract

In measuring the percentage of foreign-held U.S., German, and Swiss currencies for the period of the 1960s through the 1990s, I obtain estimates much different from those of others. Using currency demand equations implied by cointegrating vectors for Canada, the Netherlands, and Austria, I estimate that in 1996 only 30% of U.S. currency was held outside the United States, and as much as 69% of German currency was held outside Germany. The U.S. estimate falls slowly over the 1960s, reaching a low of 5% in the first half of the 1970s, then rises through the early 1980s and again during the 1990s. Given that foreign holdings of the U.S., German, and Swiss currencies constitute the bulk of international currency substitution in the world, I find that, adjusted for inflation, currency substitution roughly tripled from 1986 to 1996.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 657.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:657

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Related research
Keywords: Money ; Demand for money;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Laurence Ball, 1998. "Another Look at Long-Run Money Demand," NBER Working Papers 6597, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Steven B. Kamin & Neil R. Ericsson, 1993. "Dollarization in Argentina," International Finance Discussion Papers 460, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  3. Haughton, Jonathan, 1995. "Adding mystery to the case of the missing currency," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(35), pages 595-602. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Miguel A. Savastano, 1996. "Dollarization in Latin America - Recent Evidence and Some Policy Issues," IMF Working Papers 96/4, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Edgar L. Feige, 2005. "The Underground Economy And The Currency Enigma," Macroeconomics 0502004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  6. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Haug, Alfred A & Lucas, Robert F, 1996. "Long-Run Money Demand in Canada: In Search of Stability," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(2), pages 345-48, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Richard D. Porter & Ruth A. Judson, 1996. "The location of U.S. currency: how much is abroad?," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Oct, pages 883-903.
  9. Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
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  10. Sprenkle, Case M, 1993. "The Case of the Missing Currency," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(4), pages 175-84, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Lucas, R.F. & Haug, A.A., 1992. "Long-Run Money Demand in Canada: In Search of Stability," Papers 92-4, Saskatchewan - Department of Economics.
  12. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Sichel, Daniel E., 1990. "The demand for money," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 299-356 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Kenneth S. Chan, 2001. "The Internationalisation of Hong Kong Dollar: An Analytical Framework," Working Papers 012001, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
  2. Willem Buiter, 2004. "A Small Corner of Intertemporal Public Finance - New Developments in Monetary Economics: 2 Ghosts, 2 Eccentricities, A Fallacy, A Mirage and A Mythos," NBER Working Papers 10524, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Helmut Stix, 2003. "How Do Debit Cards Affect Cash Demand? Survey Data Evidence," Working Papers 82, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Edgar Feige & James Dean, 2002. "Dollarization and Euroization in Transition Countries: Currency Substitution, Asset Substitution, Network Externalities and Irreversibility," International Finance 0205003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  5. Komárek Luboš & Melecký Martin, 2001. "Currency Substitution in the Transition Economy : A Case of the Czech Republic 1993-2001," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 613, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Sharon Kozicki & P.A. Tinsley, 2001. "Dynamic specifications in optimizing trend-deviation macro models," Research Working Paper RWP 01-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Kenneth S. Chan, 2001. "Currency Substitution between Hong Kong Dollar and Renminbi in South China," Working Papers 022001, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
  8. Komárek Luboš & Melecký Martin, 2001. "Demand for Money in the Transition Economy : The Case of the Czech Republic 1993–2001," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 614, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Harrison , Barry & Vymyatnina, Yulia, 2007. "Currency substitution in a de-dollarizing economy: The case of Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 3/2007, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
  10. Miguel Lebre de Freitas, 2003. "Currency substitution and money demand in Euroland," NIPE Working Papers 11/2003, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Yunus Aksoy & Tomasz Piskorski, 2005. "U.S. Domestic Money, Inflation and Output," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0506, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Vedran Sosic & Michael Faulend, 2002. "Dollarisation and the Underground Economy: Accidental Partners?," Occasional paper series 15, Institute of Public Finance. [Downloadable!]
  13. Edgar L. Feige & Ivica Urban, . "Measuring Underground (Unobserved, Non-Observed, Unrecorded) Economies in Transition Countries: Can We Trust GDP?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp913, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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