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Measuring Underground (Unobserved, Non-Observed, Unrecorded) Economies in Transition Countries: Can We Trust GDP?

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Edgar L. Feige ()
Ivica Urban

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Abstract

This paper compiles alternative estimates of underground economies in twenty five transition countries during the transition decade and finds a disturbing lack of convergence between them, calling into question the reliability of GDP figures (which in varying degrees now include non-transparent imputations for the “nonobserved economy”) as well as the macro model estimates of the unrecorded economy.

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Paper provided by William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School in its series William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series with number wp913.

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Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2008-913

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Related research
Keywords: Underground; unrecorded; unobserved; non-observed; NOE; hidden; informal; shadow; GDP; national accounts; transition economies.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth
O17 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
P24 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation
H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion
O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Nauro F. Campos & Fabrizio Coricelli, 2002. "Growth in Transition: What We Know, What We Don't, and What We Should," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 470, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Simon Johnson & Daniel Kaufman & Andrei Shleifer, 1997. "The Unofficial Economy in Transition," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1997-2), pages 159-240. [Downloadable!]
  3. Edgar L. Feige, 2003. "Defining And Estimating Underground And Informal Economies: The New Institional Economics Approach," Development and Comp Systems 0312003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Edgar L. Feige, 2005. "A Re-Examination of the 'Underground Economy' in the United States; A Comment on Tanzi," Macroeconomics 0501021, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  5. Eduardo Borensztein & Ratna Sahay & Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Andrew Berg, 1999. "The Evolution of Output in Transition Economies - Explaining the Differences," IMF Working Papers 99/73, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Helmut Stix, 2001. "Survey Results about Foreign Currency Holdings in Five Central and Eastern European Countries," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 2(3), pages 41-48, 02. [Downloadable!]
  7. Adriaan M. Bloem & Manik L. Shrestha, . "Comprehensive Measures of GDP and the Unrecorded Economy," IMF Working Papers 00/204, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Brian M. Doyle, 2000. ""Here, dollars, dollars ..."estimating currency demand and worldwide currency substitution," International Finance Discussion Papers 657, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-19.

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