Real-Time Market Abuse Detection with a Stochastic Parameter Model
AbstractThis paper develops a new model of market abuse detection in real time. Market abuse is detected, as Minenna (2003) proposed, on the basis of prediction intervals. The model structure is based on the discrete-time, extended market model introduced by Monteiro, Zaman, Leitterstorf (2007) to analyze the market cleanliness. Parameters of the expected return equation are assumed, however, to be time-varying and estimated under the state-space framework using the extended Kalman filter postulated by Chou, Engle, Kane (1992) to capture the GARCH effect in returns. QML estimation is performed on intraday data; its utilization is proposed as an alternative to the continuous time modeling by Minenna (2003). This framework is generalized to the bivariate case which enables the analysis of daily open/close data. The paper also extends procedures of the statistical verification of the estimated state-space model to include the uncertainty arising from time-invariant parameters.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by CEJEME in its journal Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics.
Volume (Year): 1 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 (November)
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Web page: http://cejeme.org/
Market abuse detection; insider trading; real-time analysis; timevarying parameters; uni- and bivariate GARCH processes;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
- G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other
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