Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Hard Times

Contents:

Author Info

  • John Y. Campbell
  • Stefano Giglio
  • Christopher Polk

Abstract

This paper shows that the stock market downturns of 2000-2002 and 2007-09 have very different proximate causes. The early 2000's saw a large increase in the discount rates applied to corporate profits by rational investors, while the late 2000's saw a decrease in rational expectations of future profits. In each case the downturn reversed the trends of the previous boom. We reach these conclusions using a vector autoregressive model of aggregate stock returns and valuations, estimated imposing the cross-sectional restrictions of the intertemporal capital asset pricing model (ICAPM). As stock returns are very noisy, exploiting an economic model such as the ICAPM to extract information about future corporate profits from realized returns can potentially be very useful. We confirm that the ICAPM restrictions improve the out-of-sample forecasting performance of VAR models for stock returns, and that our conclusions are consistent with a simple graphical data analysis. Our findings imply that the 2007-09 downturn was particularly serious for rational long-term investors, who did not expect a strong recovery of stock prices as they did earlier in the decade.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w16222.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 16222.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Jul 2010
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as “Hard Times”, with Stefano Giglio and Christopher Polk, Review of Asset Pricing Studies 3:95-132, June 2013.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16222

Note: AP
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Phone: 617-868-3900
Email:
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. John Campbell & Christopher Polk & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2005. "Growth or glamour? fundamentals and systemic risk in stock returns," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1991. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 263-86, April.
  3. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-87, September.
  4. Campbell, John Y, 1996. "Understanding Risk and Return," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(2), pages 298-345, April.
  5. Campbell, John Y, 1993. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing without Consumption Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 487-512, June.
  6. Amit Goval & Ivo Welch, 2004. "A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," NBER Working Papers 10483, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Presidential Address: Discount Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1047-1108, 08.
  8. Whitney K. Newey & Richard J. Smith, 2004. "Higher Order Properties of Gmm and Generalized Empirical Likelihood Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 72(1), pages 219-255, 01.
  9. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-69, July.
  10. John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2008. "Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1509-1531, July.
  11. Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Kenneth D. West & Todd Clark, 2006. "Approximately Normal Tests for Equal Predictive Accuracy in Nested Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Ravi Bansal & Dana Kiku & Ivan Shaliastovich & Amir Yaron, 2012. "Volatility, the Macroeconomy and Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 18104, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2013. "Shocks and Crashes," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2013, Volume 28, pages 293-354 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. John Y. Campbell, 1990. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 3246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, October.
  17. Engsted, Tom & Pedersen, Thomas Q. & Tanggaard, Carsten, 2012. "Pitfalls in VAR based return decompositions: A clarification," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1255-1265.
  18. Polk, Christopher & Thompson, Samuel & Vuolteenaho, Tuomo, 2006. "Cross-sectional forecasts of the equity premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 101-141, July.
  19. Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2006. "Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the martingale difference hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 155-186.
  20. John H. Cochrane, 2008. "The Dog That Did Not Bark: A Defense of Return Predictability," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1533-1575, July.
  21. Long Chen & Xinlei Zhao, 2009. "Return Decomposition," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(12), pages 5213-5249, December.
  22. Schroder, Mark & Skiadas, Costis, 1999. "Optimal Consumption and Portfolio Selection with Stochastic Differential Utility," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 68-126, November.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. repec:dgr:uvatin:2010116 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Botshekan, Mahmoud & Kraeussl, Roman & Lucas, Andre, 2012. "Cash Flow and Discount Rate Risk in Up and Down Markets: What Is Actually Priced?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(06), pages 1279-1301, December.
  3. Thomas Nitschka, 2014. "The Good? The Bad? The Ugly? Which news drive (co)variation in Swiss and US bond and stock excess returns?," Working Papers 2014-01, Swiss National Bank.
  4. Maio, Paulo, 2013. "Return decomposition and the Intertemporal CAPM," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4958-4972.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16222. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.