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Potential Output Estimations for Hungary: A Survey of Different Approaches

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  • Szilárd Benk

    ()
    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

  • Zoltán M. Jakab

    ()
    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

  • Gábor Vadas

    ()
    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

Abstract

This paper is a comprehensive analysis of Hungary’s potential output. Since the concept of potential output is not unique, we present various interpretations of potential GDP, along with a large set of techniques for estimating it. Various estimates are presented and robustness analyses are performed. Finally, an illustrative scenario is outlined for the forthcoming few years.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary) in its series MNB Occasional Papers with number 2005/43.

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Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mnb:opaper:2005/43

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Keywords: potential output; output gap; production function; business cycle; filtering.;

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References

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  1. Júlia Lendvai, 2005. "Hungarian Inflation Dynamics," MNB Occasional Papers 2005/46, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
  2. Gábor Kátay & Zoltán Wolf, 2004. "Investment Behavior, User Cost and Monetary Policy Transmission - the Case of Hungary," MNB Working Papers 2004/12, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
  3. Matthew Shapiro & Mark Watson, 1988. "Sources of Business Cycles Fluctuations," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1988, Volume 3, pages 111-156 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1987. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 2229, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Steven Morling, 2002. "Output Adjustment in Developing Countries: a Structural Var Approach," Discussion Papers Series 307, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  6. Szilárd Benk & Zoltán M. Jakab & Mihály András Kovács & Balázs Párkányi & Zoltán Reppa & Gábor Vadas, 2006. "The Hungarian Quarterly Projection Model (NEM)," MNB Occasional Papers 2006/60, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
  7. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Research 35, National Bank of Belgium.
  8. St-Amant, P. & van Norden, S., 1997. "Measurement of the Output Gap: A Discussion of Recent Research at the Bank of Canada," Technical Reports 79, Bank of Canada.
  9. Gábor Pula, 2003. "Capital Stock Estimation in Hungary: A Brief Description of Methodolgy and Results," MNB Working Papers 2003/7, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Konstantins Benkovskis & Ludmila Fadejeva & Julia Wörz, 2013. "How Important Is Total Factor Productivity for Growth in Central, Eastern and Southeastern European Countries?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1.
  2. Zoltán M. Jakab & Balázs Világi, 2008. "An estimated DSGE model of the Hungarian economy," MNB Working Papers 2008/9, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).

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