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Towards a Monthly Business Cycle Chronology for the Euro Area

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Author Info
Mönch, Emanuel
Uhlig, Harald

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Abstract

This Paper is an exercise in dating the euro area business cycle on a monthly basis. We construct several monthly European real GDP series, and then apply the Bry-Boschan (1971) procedure. Using this method we identify four business cycles. Studying further indicators of business activity, we conclude that the euro area has experienced three business cycles since 1970. We propose a simple amplitude/phase-length criterion for the Bry-Boschan procedure ruling out expansionary phases that are short and flat. Applying the extended procedure to US and European data, we are able to replicate approximately the dating decisions of NBER and CEPR.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4377.

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Date of creation: May 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4377

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Keywords: bry-boschan business cycle euro area european business cycle nber methodology

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models
C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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