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How little we know about budget policy effects

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Author Info
Preston J. Miller
Will Roberds

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Abstract

Using a simple model, we show why previous empirical studies of budget policy effects are flawed. Due to an identification problem, those studies’ findings can be shown to be consistent with either policies mattering or not.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Staff Report with number 120.

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Date of creation: 1989
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Publication status: Published in Quarterly Review (Vol 16, Num 1, Winter 1992, pp. 2-11)
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:120

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Keywords: Budget;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Preston J. Miller & William Roberds, 1987. "The quantitative significance of the Lucas critique," Staff Report 109, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. B. Douglas Bernheim & Kyle Bagwell, 1989. "Is Everything Neutral?," NBER Working Papers 2086, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Bruce D. Smith, 1984. "Money and inflation in colonial Massachusetts," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win. [Downloadable!]
  5. Andrew B. Abel & B. Douglas Bernheim, 1992. "Fiscal Policy With Impure Intergenerational Altruism," NBER Working Papers 2613, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Neil Wallace, 1984. "Some of the choices for monetary policy," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win. [Downloadable!]
  8. Kormendi, Roger C, 1983. "Government Debt, Government Spending, and Private Sector Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(5), pages 994-1010, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Finite lifetimes and the effects of budget deficits on national saving," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 369-391, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Watson, Mark W., 1989. "Recursive solution methods for dynamic linear rational expectations models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 65-89, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Dwyer, Gerald P, Jr, 1982. "Inflation and Government Deficits," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 315-29, July.
  12. Sargent, Thomas J, 1976. "The Observational Equivalence of Natural and Unnatural Rate Theories of Macroeconomics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(3), pages 631-40, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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