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Unemployment and Infant Health: Times-Series Evidence from the State of Tennessee

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Author Info
Theodore J. Joyce
Naci H. Mocan

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Abstract

The relationship between unemployment and health continues to absorb social scientists. The primary reason is the potential significance of an association. If a substantial deterioration in aggregate health is related to economic downturns, then the cost of a recession may be much greater than the foregone output. This paper investigates the aggregate time-series relationship between unemployment and low birthweight with monthly data from the state of Tennessee from 1970 through 1989. The study differs from previous work in that we decompose the unemployment rate into its structural and cyclical components. Moreover, we use vector autoregressions to test the reduced form relationship between unemployment and low birthweight. The well-defined exogeneity of unemployment and the lag length restriction imposed by the duration of a pregnancy strengthens the specification considerably. We fail to find a relationship between unemployment and low birthweight. This basic finding remains unchanged irrespective of whether we test structural or cyclical unemployment, or whether we use total or race-specific rates of low birthweight.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3694.

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Date of creation: Jun 1993
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3694

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I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Production

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    Other versions:
  2. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Charles R. Nelson & Heejoon Kang, 1983. "Pitfalls in the use of Time as an Explanatory Variable in Regression," NBER Technical Working Papers 0030, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Forbes, John F. & McGregor, Alan, 1984. "Unemployment and mortality in post-war Scotland," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 239-257, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1988. "Variable Trends in Economic Time Series," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 147-74, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Cooley, Thomas F. & Leroy, Stephen F., 1985. "Atheoretical macroeconometrics: A critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 283-308, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Hope Corman & Theodore J. Joyce & Michael Grossman, 1987. "Birth Outcome Production Functions in the U.S," NBER Working Papers 1729, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Robert J. Gordon & Stephen R. King, 1982. "The Output Cost of Disinflation in Traditional and Vector Autoregressive Models," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 13(1982-1), pages 205-244. [Downloadable!]
  11. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing for Higher Order Serial Correlation in Regression Equations When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1303-10, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Ambler, Steve, 1989. "Does Money Matter in Canada? Evidence from a Vector Error Correction Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 651-58, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Eckstein, Zvi & Schultz, T. Paul & Wolpin, Kenneth I., 1984. "Short-run fluctuations in fertility and mortality in pre-industrial Sweden," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 295-317, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Theodore J. Joyce, 1990. "A Time-Series Analysis of Unemployment and Health: The Case of Birth Outcomes in New York City," NBER Working Papers 2834, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Grossman, Michael & Joyce, Theodore J, 1990. "Unobservables, Pregnancy Resolutions, and Birth Weight Production Functions in New York City," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 983-1007, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-52, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ruhm, Christopher J., 2003. "Healthy Living in Hard Times," IZA Discussion Papers 711, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Christopher J. Ruhm, 2001. "Economic Expansions Are Unhealthy: Evidence from Microdata," NBER Working Papers 8447, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Gerdtham, Ulf-G. & Ruhm, Christopher J., 2002. "Deaths Rise in Good Economic Times: Evidence From the OECD," IZA Discussion Papers 654, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Christopher Ruhm, 1994. "Economic Conditions and Alcohol Problems," NBER Working Papers 4914, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Christopher J. Ruhm, 1996. "Are Recessions Good For Your Health?," NBER Working Papers 5570, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Christopher J. Ruhm, 2004. "Macroeconomic Conditions, Health and Mortality," NBER Working Papers 11007, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Naci H. Mocan & Kudret Topyan, 1993. "Illicit Drug Use and Health: Analysis and Projections of New York City Birth Outcomes Using a Kalman Filter Model," NBER Working Papers 4359, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Timothy Halliday, 2006. "The Impact of Aggregate and Idiosyncratic Income Shocks on Health Outcomes: Evidence from the PSID," Working Papers 200606, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Svensson, Mikael, 2006. "Don’t Go Breaking your Heart: Do Economic Upturns Really Increase Heart Attack Mortality?," Working Papers 2006:8, Örebro University, Swedish Business School, revised 01 Nov 2006.
  10. Audrey Laporte, 2004. "Do economic cycles have a permanent effect on population health? Revisiting the Brenner hypothesis," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(8), pages 767-779. [Downloadable!]
  11. Petri Böckerman & Edvard Johansson & Satu Helakorpi & Ritva Prättälä & Erkki Vartiainen Antti Uutela, 2005. "Does a Slump Really Make You Thinner? Finnish Micro-level Evidence 1978-2002," Labor and Demography 0505011, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Petri Böckerman & Edvard Johansson & Ritva Prättälä & Antti Uutela, 2005. "Alcohol mortality, drinking behaviour, and business cycles: are slumps really dry seasons?," HEW 0506002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Timothy Halliday, 2006. "Income Risk and Health," Working Papers 200612, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Svensson, Mikael, 2006. "Economic Upturns are Good for Your Heart but Watch out for Accidents," Working Papers 2006:9, Örebro University, Swedish Business School, revised 26 Jun 2007.
  15. Christopher J. Ruhm, 2006. "A Healthy Economy Can Break Your Heart," NBER Working Papers 12102, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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