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Does Monetary Policy React to Asset Prices? Some International Evidence

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  • Francesco FURLANETTO

Abstract

This paper attempts to measure the reaction of monetary policy to the stock market. We apply the procedure of Rigobon and Sack (2003) to identify and estimate a VAR in the presence of heteroskedasticity. This procedure fully takes into account the endogeneity of interest rates and stock returns that is ignored in the traditional VAR literature. We find a positive and significant reaction in the US and the UK. However, since the end of the 1990s, in a period of large stock market fluctuations, this reaction declines in the US and disappears in the UK. In Japan and the EU, we do not find any reaction. We provide evidence that the lower response to stock prices in the last part of the sample in the US is compensated by a higher response to real estate prices.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP in its series Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) with number 08.02.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:lau:crdeep:08.02

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Postal: Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP, Internef, CH-1015 Lausanne
Phone: ++41 21 692.33.64
Fax: ++41 21 692.33.05
Email:
Web page: http://www.hec.unil.ch/deep/publications/cahiers/series
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Keywords: monetary policy; stock market; identifcation; VAR; heteroskedasticity;

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References

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  1. Case, Karl E. & Quigley, John M. & Shiller, Robert J., 2012. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus The Housing Market," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt6px1d1sc, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  2. Jagjit S. Chadha & Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente, 2004. "Monetary Policy Rules, Asset Prices, and Exchange Rates," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(3), pages 529-552, November.
  3. Monica Paiella, 2004. "Does wealth affect consumption? Evidence for Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 510, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  4. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting output and inflation: the role of asset prices," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  5. Q. Farooq Akram & Øyvind Eitrheim, 2006. "Flexible inflation targeting and financial stability: Is it enough to stabilise inflation and output?," Working Paper 2006/07, Norges Bank.
  6. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Leitemo, Kai, 2009. "Identifying the interdependence between US monetary policy and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 275-282, March.
  7. Jiri Slacalek, 2006. "What Drives Personal Consumption?: The Role of Housing and Financial Wealth," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 647, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  8. Thorbecke, Willem, 1997. " On Stock Market Returns and Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 635-54, June.
  9. Finocchiaro, Daria & Queijo von Heideken, Virginia, 2007. "Do Central Banks React to House Prices?," Working Paper Series 217, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Aug 2009.
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  11. Francesco Furlanetto, 2011. "Does Monetary Policy React to Asset Prices? Some International Evidence," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(3), pages 91-111, September.
  12. Paolo Surico & Antonello D'Agostino & Luca Sala, 2005. "The Fed and the Stock Market," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 293, Society for Computational Economics.
  13. Bordo, Michael D & Jeanne, Olivier, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: Does 'Benign Neglect' Make Sense?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(2), pages 139-64, Summer.
  14. Fabio Milani, 2008. "Learning about the Interdependence between the Macroeconomy and the Stock Market," Working Papers 070819, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
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  16. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory," Economics Working Papers 350, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised May 1999.
  17. Matteo Iacoviello, 2002. "House prices, borrowing constraints and monetary policy in the business cycle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 542, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 06 Dec 2004.
  18. Jeff Fuhrer & Geoff Tootell, 2004. "Eyes on the prize: how did the Fed respond to the stock market?," Public Policy Discussion Paper 04-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  19. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Bohl, Martin T. & Siklos, Pierre L. & Werner, Thomas, 2007. "Do central banks react to the stock market? The case of the Bundesbank," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 719-733, March.
  21. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy and Asset Price Volatility," NBER Working Papers 7559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identification Through Heteroskedasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 777-792, November.
  23. Gerlach, Stefan & Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin, 2008. "Financial structure and the impact of monetary policy on asset prices," CFS Working Paper Series 2008/30, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  24. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2001. "Measuring the reaction of monetary policy to the stock market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-14, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  25. Castelnuovo , Efrem & Nisticò, Salvatore, 2010. "Stock market conditions and monetary policy in an DSGE model for the US," Research Discussion Papers 11/2010, Bank of Finland.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Dominique Pepin, 2010. "La BCE réagit-elle au prix des actifs financiers ?," Working Papers hal-00963626, HAL.
  2. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Nisticò, Salvatore, 2010. "Stock market conditions and monetary policy in a DSGE model for the U.S," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1700-1731, September.
  3. Francesco FURLANETTO, 2008. "Does Monetary Policy React to Asset Prices? Some International Evidence," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 08.02, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
  4. Jordi Galí & Luca Gambetti, 2013. "The Effects of Monetary Policy on Stock Market Bubbles: Some Evidence," Working Papers 724, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  5. Kajuth, Florian, 2012. "Identifying the Phillips curve through shifts in volatility," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 975-991.
  6. Demir, Ishak, 2012. "ECB Policy Response to the Euro/US Dollar Exchange Rate," MPRA Paper 36744, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Airaudo, Marco & Nisticò, Salvatore & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2012. "Learning, Monetary Policy and Asset Prices," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2012-12, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
  8. Jordi Gali & Luca Gambetti, 2014. "The Effects of Monetary Policy on Stock Market Bubbles: Some Evidence," NBER Working Papers 19981, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Roseline Nyakerario Misati & Esman Morekwa Nyamongo & Lucas Kamau Njoroge & Sheila Kaminchia, 2012. "Feasibility of inflation targeting in an emerging market: evidence from Kenya," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 4(2), pages 146-159, June.

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