Monetary policy shocks and financial conditions: A Monte Carlo experiment
AbstractThe effects of monetary policy shocks on financial conditions are often estimated by appealing to recursive Vector AutoRegressions (VARs). We assess the ability of this class of VARs to recover the true effects of a monetary policy shock via a Monte Carlo experiment in which the Data Generating Process is a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model featuring macro-finance interactions and estimated with U.S. quarterly data. Our DSGE model predicts a negative and significant reaction of financial conditions to an unexpected monetary policy tightening. We point out that such reaction is just overlooked by recursive VARs. Moreover, we show that Cholesky-VARs may substantially underestimate the welfare costs due to macroeconomic fluctuations.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.
Volume (Year): 32 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443
Kansas City Financial Stress Index; Financial–macroeconomic interactions in a DSGE model; Monetary policy shock; Cholesky-VARs; Monte Carlo exercises;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
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- Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2013.
"A New Index of Financial Conditions,"
45463, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2013. "A new index of financial conditions," Working Papers 1307, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
- Gary, Koop & Dimitris, Korobilis, 2013. "A New Index of Financial Conditions," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-48, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, . "A new index of financial conditions," Working Papers 2013_06, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
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