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Estimaciones de NAIRU para Chile

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Author Info
Jorge E. Restrepo
Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to find a set of estimates for the non-accelerating-inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) for Chile. Measuring the NAIRU permits to build the unemployment gap, which provides a complementary measure of aggregate demand and of the output gap. It is generally used by central banks as part of the set of indicators with which they project inflation and make policy decisions. Initially, an estimate is obtained from a purely statistical method (unknown components). Then calculations of both constant and variable NAIRU are made on the basis of Phillips curve equations. A final measure of NAIRU is obtained, based on an estimated autoregressive vector, identified with long-run restrictions. The various estimations yield similar results and indicate that the most likely point estimate of the current NAIRU is between 7.6% and 8.1%, with a 95% confidence interval that goes from 6.4% to 9.3%. This wide interval gives an idea of the highdegree of uncertainty regarding its point estimation.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 361.

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Date of creation: May 2006
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:361

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  2. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Prices, Wages and the U.S. NAIRU in the 1990s," NBER Working Papers 8320, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1997. "Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number rome97-1.
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  7. Gordon, Robert J, 1996. "The Time-varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 1492, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 678. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1996. "How Precise are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Working Papers 5477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Franco Modigliani & Lucas Papademos, 1975. "Targets for Monetary Policy in the Coming Year," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(1975-1), pages 141-166. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Robert G. King & Mark W. Watson, 1994. "The post-war U.S. Phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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  14. James Morley & Thomas King, 2003. "In Search of the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 190, Society for Computational Economics.
  15. Clark, Peter K., 1989. "Trend reversion in real output and unemployment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 15-32, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Ray C. Fair, 2000. "Testing the NAIRU Model for the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 64-71, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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