The estimation uncertainty of permanent-transitory decompositions in cointegrated systems
AbstractThe topic of this paper is the estimation uncertainty of the Stock-Watsonand Gonzalo-Granger permanent-transitory decompositions in the frameworkof the cointegrated vector-autoregression. Specifically, we suggest an approach to construct the confidence interval of the transitory component in agiven period (e.g. the latest observation) by conditioning on the observed datain that period. To calculate asymptotically valid confidence intervals we usethe delta method and two bootstrap variants. As an illustration we analyze theuncertainty of (US) output gap estimates in a system of output, consumption, and investment.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute in its series IMK Working Paper with number 3-2011.
Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
transitory components; VECM; delta method; bootstrap;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-03-19 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2011-03-19 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2011-03-19 (Econometric Time Series)
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