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Testing Real Business Cycle Models in an Emerging Economy

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Author Info
Raimundo Soto () (Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.)
Raphael Bergoeing

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Abstract

RBC models have been successful when applied to developed economies: their abilities in replicating the data of emerging countries remain largely unexplored. The rapid but unstable growth process in developing countries and their relatively less developed market structure pose a formidable challenge to neoclassical general equilibrium models. Using data of the Chilean economy, we explore the effects of market rigidities and macroeconomic policies on the dynamics of consumption, investment, inflation and factor markets. We find that business cycles models replicate much of the observed fluctuations of real and monetary variables in the Chilean economy, despite its idiosyncratic economic structure. Using a calibrated model we find that technology shocks, fiscal policies and labor market rigidities are the main sources of economic cycles, while monetary policies and wage indexation play a minor role. Econometric tests support the use of our calibrated model as an adequate representation of the Chilean data.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. in its series Documentos de Trabajo with number 219.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Publication status: Published as "Testing Real Business Cycle Models in an Emerging Economy", en “General Equilibrium Models for the Chilean Economy”. Editado por R. Chumacero and K. Schmidt-Hebbel, Banco Central de Chile, 2005.
Handle: RePEc:ioe:doctra:219

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Related research
Keywords: General equilibrium models; emerging economies; testing.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Edward C. Prescott, 1986. "Theory ahead of business cycle measurement," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 9-22. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1993. "International Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 93-21, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  3. Benhabib, Jess & Rogerson, Richard & Wright, Randall, 1991. "Homework in Macroeconomics: Household Production and Aggregate Fluctuations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(6), pages 1166-87, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-37, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Edward C. Prescott, 1998. "Business cycle research: methods and problems," Working Papers 590, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  6. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1991. "Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 797-818, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-47, July-Sept. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Guay, A & St-Amant, P, 1996. "Do Mechanical Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?," Technical Reports 78, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio, 1993. "Labor Hoarding and the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(2), pages 245-73, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Douglas Gollin, 2001. "Getting Income Shares Right," Department of Economics Working Papers 192, Department of Economics, Williams College. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Raphael Bergoeing & Juan Enrique Suárez, . "¿Qué debemos explicar?: Reportando las Fluctuaciones Agregadas de la Economía Chilena," ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers inv112, Ilades-Georgetown University, School of Economics and Bussines. [Downloadable!]
  16. Rogerson, Richard, 1988. "Indivisible labor, lotteries and equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 3-16, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Devereux, Michael B. & Head, Allen C. & Lapham, Beverly J., 1996. "Aggregate fluctuations with increasing returns to specialization and scale," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 627-656, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Hansen, Lars Peter & Heckman, James J, 1996. "The Empirical Foundations of Calibration," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 87-104, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Lucas, Robert E., 1977. "Understanding business cycles," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-29, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Ellen R. McGrattan, 1994. "A progress report on business cycle models," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 2-16. [Downloadable!]
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    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Miguel Braun & Luciano di Gresia, 2004. "Towards Effective Social Insurance in Latin America: The Importance of Countercyclical Fiscal Policy," Public Economics 0410001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  2. Acuña, Andrés, 2006. "Desempleo y Actividad Económica Regional: Un Enfoque Cíclico
    [Unemployment and Regional Economic Activity: A Cyclical Approach]    ," MPRA Paper 8275, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2006. [Downloadable!]
  3. Raphael Bergoeing & Felipe Morandé & Facundo Piguillem, 2003. "Labor Market Distortions, Employment and Growth: The Recent Chilean Experience," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 251, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Roberto Duncan, 2003. "The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect Revisited: An Indirect-Utility-Function Approach," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 250, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  5. Rodrigo Cerda & Rodrigo Vergara, 2005. "Unemployment Insurance in Chile: Does it Stabilize the Business Cycle?," Documentos de Trabajo 302, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Francisco A. Gallego & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Luis Servén, 2004. "General Equilibrium Dynamics of External Shocks and Policy Changes in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 271, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  7. Marcelo Ochoa & Patricio Valenzuela, 2004. "Impactos de un Shock Externo en un Modelo Estocástico de Equilibrio General para una Economía Abierta: El Caso de Chile," Macroeconomics 0407007, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  8. Rómulo A. Chumacero & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2004. "General Equilibrium Models: An Overview," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 307, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  9. Se Kyu Choi-Ha & Luis Felipe Lagos, 2003. "El Dinero como Indicador Líder," Cuadernos de Economía (Latin American Journal of Economics), Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 40(120), pages 259-283. [Downloadable!]
  10. Lucas Navarro & Raimundo Soto, 2001. "Procyclical productivity : evidence from an emerging economy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 109, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  11. Calani, Mauricio, 2007. "Testing Globalization-Disinflation Hypothesis," MPRA Paper 4787, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Sep 2007. [Downloadable!]
  12. Miguel Braun & Luciano di Gresia, 2003. "Hacia un sistema de seguro social eficaz en América Latina: la importancia de una política fiscal anticíclica," RES Working Papers 4334, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  13. Roberto Duncan, 2003. "Floating, Official Dollarization, and Macroeconomic Volatility:An Analysis for the Chilean Economy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 249, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  14. Raphael Bergoeing & Felipe Morandé, 2002. "Crecimiento, empleo e impuestos al trabajo: Chile 1998-2001," Documentos de Trabajo 127, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Lucas Navarro & Raimundo Soto, 2006. "Procyclical Productivity in Manufacturing," Cuadernos de Economía (Latin American Journal of Economics), Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 43(127), pages 193-220. [Downloadable!]
  16. Norbert Fiess, 2004. "Chile's Fiscal Rule," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 348, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  17. Roberto Duncan, 2002. "How Well Does a Monetary Dynamic Equilibrium Model Account for Chilean Data?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 190, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  18. Miguel Braun & Luciano di Gresia, 2003. "Towards Effective Social Insurance in Latin America: The Importance of Countercyclical Fiscal Policy," RES Working Papers 4333, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  19. Raphael Bergoeing & Facundo Piguillem, 2003. "Innovaciones en productividad y dinámica de plantas," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Economics Department, vol. 18(2), pages 3-32, December. [Downloadable!]
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