Economic Cycle Volatility in the World Economy and Prospects for Global Economic Equilibrium Recovery
AbstractThe article examines the problems of cyclical economic development in the world economy. The trends in economic development and the degree of economic cycle volatility in the world during the 1970-2010 are analyzed. The phenomenon of the Great Moderation as a period of achieving the long-term relative equilibrium in the global economy on methodological and empirical level is represented. On the basis of correlation and regression modeling the trends of real GDP and changes in consumer prices for economies are identified, on which nowadays predominantly the restoration of economic equilibrium depends in view of maintaining the existing global economic order. Scenarios of restoring the global economic equilibrium within the neoclassical and neokeynesian vision are outlined and alternative modern concepts of global economy transformation in the context of attempts to solve the problem of worsening cyclical economic development and economic instability are presented.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 34272.
Date of creation: 23 Oct 2011
Date of revision: 24 Oct 2011
economic cycle volatility; Great Moderation; global economic equilibrium; neoclassical and neokeynesian approaches to economic policy; economic growth; growthonomics; inflationary and deflationary scenarios in global economy; steady-state economy; and technological singularity;
Other versions of this item:
- Vadym Konchyn, 2011. "Economic Cycle Volatility in the World Economy and Prospects for Global Economic Equilibrium Recovery," Journal of Global Economy, Research Centre for Social Sciences,Mumbai, India, vol. 7(4), pages 226-248, December.
- O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order; Noneconomic International Organizations;; Economic Integration and Globalization: General
- P51 - Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Analysis of Economic Systems
- F59 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - Other
- F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
- F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998.
"Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory,"
NBER Working Papers
6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February.
- Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and some Theory," Working Papers 98-01, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 1908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory," Economics Working Papers 350, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised May 1999.
- Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2003.
"Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?,"
NBER Working Papers
9459, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Karen E. Dynan & Douglas W. Elmendorf & Daniel E. Sichel, 2005.
"Can financial innovation help to explain the reduced volatility of economic activity?,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2005-54, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Dynan, Karen E. & Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Sichel, Daniel E., 2006. "Can financial innovation help to explain the reduced volatility of economic activity?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 123-150, January.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.