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Economic Cycle Volatility in the World Economy and Prospects for Global Economic Equilibrium Recovery

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  • Konchyn, Vadym

Abstract

The article examines the problems of cyclical economic development in the world economy. The trends in economic development and the degree of economic cycle volatility in the world during the 1970-2010 are analyzed. The phenomenon of the Great Moderation as a period of achieving the long-term relative equilibrium in the global economy on methodological and empirical level is represented. On the basis of correlation and regression modeling the trends of real GDP and changes in consumer prices for economies are identified, on which nowadays predominantly the restoration of economic equilibrium depends in view of maintaining the existing global economic order. Scenarios of restoring the global economic equilibrium within the neoclassical and neokeynesian vision are outlined and alternative modern concepts of global economy transformation in the context of attempts to solve the problem of worsening cyclical economic development and economic instability are presented.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/38467/
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 34272.

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Date of creation: 23 Oct 2011
Date of revision: 24 Oct 2011
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:34272

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Keywords: economic cycle volatility; Great Moderation; global economic equilibrium; neoclassical and neokeynesian approaches to economic policy; economic growth; growthonomics; inflationary and deflationary scenarios in global economy; steady-state economy; and technological singularity;

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  1. Karen E. Dynan & Douglas W. Elmendorf & Daniel E. Sichel, 2005. "Can financial innovation help to explain the reduced volatility of economic activity?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 2005-54, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2006. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(3), pages 445-462, August.
  3. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February.
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