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Currency Substitution, Portfolio Diversification and Money Demand

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  • Miguel Lebre de Freitas

Abstract

The paper explores the implications of means of payment substitutability and capital mobility on the properties of the money demand, using the Thomas (1985) stochastic dynamic optimising model, where the specific role of money is explicitly accounted for. Extending the model to a case in which the consumer has no access to bonds denominated in foreign currency, we are able to describe the double role (means of payment and store of value) that foreign bank notes may have in countries where asset markets are illiquid. We show that means of payment substitutability opens a channel through which portfolio decisions influence the demand for domestic money, even if the later is dominated as store of value. Contrary to what suggested by the Portfolio Balance Theory of Currency Substitution (Cuddington, 1983), the results obtained in this paper suggest that the significance of an expected exchange rate depreciation term in the demand for domestic money provides a valid test for the presence of CS

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings with number 263.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:latm04:263

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Keywords: Money Demand; Currency Substitution; Dollarisation; Portfolio Choice.;

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  1. Lebre de Freitas, M., 2004. "The dynamics of inflation and currency substitution in a small open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 133-142, February.
  2. Akcay, O. Cevdet & Alper, C. Emre & Karasulu, Meral, 1997. "Currency substitution and exchange rate instability: The Turkish case," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 827-835, April.
  3. William H. Branson & Dale W. Henderson, 1984. "The Specification and Influence of Asset Markets," NBER Working Papers 1283, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Shi Shougong, 1995. "Money and Prices: A Model of Search and Bargaining," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 467-496, December.
  5. Kamin, Steven B. & Ericsson, Neil R., 2003. "Dollarization in post-hyperinflationary Argentina," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 185-211, April.
  6. Eduardo Levy-Yeyati, 2004. "FINANCIAL DOLLARIZATION: Evaluating the consequences," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 184, Econometric Society.
  7. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Khan, Mohsin S., 1996. "Foreign currency deposits and the demand for money in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 101-118, June.
  8. Chang, Roberto, 1994. "Endogenous Currency Substitution, Inflationary Finance, and Welfare," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(4), pages 903-16, November.
  9. Martin Uribe, 1995. "Hysteresis in a simple model of currency substitution," International Finance Discussion Papers 509, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Engineer, Merwan, 2000. "Currency transactions costs and competing fiat currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 113-136, October.
  11. Kareken, John & Wallace, Neil, 1981. "On the Indeterminacy of Equilibrium Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 96(2), pages 207-22, May.
  12. Pablo Guidotti & Carlos A. Rodríguez, 1992. "Dollarization in Latin America: Gresham's Law in Reverse?," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 81, Universidad del CEMA.
  13. Smith, Constance E, 1995. "Substitution, Income, and Intertemporal Effects in Currency-Substitution Models," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(1), pages 53-59, February.
  14. Stockman, Alan C, 1980. "A Theory of Exchange Rate Determination," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(4), pages 673-98, August.
  15. Ratti, Ronald A & Jeong, Byung Woo, 1994. "Variation in the real exchange rate as a source of currency substitution," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 537-550, October.
  16. Imrohoroglu, Selahattin, 1994. "GMM Estimates of Currency Substitution between the Canadian Dollar and the U.S. Dollar," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(4), pages 792-807, November.
  17. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Wright, Randall, 1989. "On Money as a Medium of Exchange," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(4), pages 927-54, August.
  18. Miles, Marc A, 1978. "Currency Substitution, Flexible Exchange Rates, and Monetary Independence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(3), pages 428-36, June.
  19. Mizen, Paul & Pentecost, Eric J, 1994. "Evaluating the Empirical Evidence for Currency Substitution: A Case Study of the Demand for Sterling in Europe," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(426), pages 1057-69, September.
  20. Thomas, Lee R, 1985. "Portfolio Theory and Currency Substitution," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(3), pages 347-57, August.
  21. Vegh, Carlos A., 1989. "The optimal inflation tax in the presence of currency substitution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 139-146, July.
  22. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. & Bundt, Thomas P., 1990. "Currency substitution and monetary autonomy: the foreign demand for US demand deposits," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 325-334, September.
  23. Calvo, Guillermo A & Rodriguez, Carlos Alfredo, 1977. "A Model of Exchange Rate Determination under Currency Substitution and Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 617-25, June.
  24. Sturzenegger, Federico, 1997. "Understanding the welfare implications of currency substitution," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 391-416.
  25. Paul R. Krugman, 1984. "The International Role of the Dollar: Theory and Prospect," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 261-278 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Sims, Christopher A, 1994. "A Simple Model for Study of the Determination of the Price Level and the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 381-99.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Miguel Lebre de Freitas, 2003. "Currency substitution and money demand in Euroland," NIPE Working Papers 11/2003, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  2. Ingrid Größl & Ulrich Fritsche, 2007. "The Store-of-Value-Function of Money as a Component of Household Risk Management," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 660, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  3. Ivan Milenković & Milivoje Davidović, 2013. "Determinants of Currency Substitution/Dollarization – The Case of the Republic of Serbia," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 2(1), pages 139-155.
  4. Caroline Duburcq, 2010. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Regime on Interest Rates in Latin America," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 47(135), pages 91-124.
  5. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:30:y:2010:i:1:p:624-635 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. repec:cbk:journl:v:1:y:2013:i:3:p:139-155 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Caroline Duburcq & Eric Girardin, 2010. "Domestic and external factors in interest rate determination: the minor role of the exchange rate regime," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(1), pages 624-635.

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