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Inflation targeting and exchange rate management in less developed countries

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  • Buffie, Edward F.
  • Airaudo, M.
  • Zanna, Felipe

Abstract

We analyze coordination of monetary and exchange rate policy in a two-sector model of a small open economy featuring imperfect substitution between domestic and foreign financial assets. Our central finding is that tight management of the exchange rate greatly enhances the efficacy of inflation targeting. In a flexible exchange rate system, inflation targeting incurs a high risk of indeterminacy. Moreover, small inflation shocks may escalate into much larger increases in inflation ex post. Both problems disappear when the central bank fixes the path of the nominal exchange rate or leans heavily against the wind in a managed float.

Suggested Citation

  • Buffie, Edward F. & Airaudo, M. & Zanna, Felipe, 2018. "Inflation targeting and exchange rate management in less developed countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 159-184.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:81:y:2018:i:c:p:159-184
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2017.09.013
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    3. Ashwin Madhou & Tayushma Sewak & Imad Moosa & Vikash Ramiah & Florian Gerth, 2021. "Towards Full-Fledged Inflation Targeting Monetary Policy Regime in Mauritius," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-18, March.
    4. Ashima Goyal, 2023. "India's exchange rate regime under inflation targeting," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2023-015, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    5. Adler, Gustavo & Chang, Kyun Suk & Wang, Zijiao, 2021. "Patterns of foreign exchange intervention under inflation targeting," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 2(4).
    6. Ding, Shusheng & Zheng, Dandan & Cui, Tianxiang & Du, Min, 2023. "The oil price-inflation nexus: The exchange rate pass- through effect," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    7. Petrevski, Goran, 2023. "Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," EconStor Preprints 271122, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    8. Adina Ionela Străchinaru & Bogdan Andrei Dumitrescu, 2019. "Assessing the Sustainability of Inflation Targeting: Evidence from EU Countries with Non-EURO Currencies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-13, October.
    9. Yildirim, Zekeriya, 2022. "Global financial risk, the risk-taking channel, and monetary policy in emerging markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    10. Mr. David J Hofman & Mr. Marcos d Chamon & Mr. Pragyan Deb & Mr. Thomas Harjes & Umang Rawat & Itaru Yamamoto, 2020. "Intervention Under Inflation Targeting--When Could It Make Sense?," IMF Working Papers 2020/009, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Kuan‐jen Chen & Ching‐chong Lai & Ting‐wei Lai, 2021. "Macroeconomic instability and targeting rules for monetary policy in an endogenously growing small open economy," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 904-926, September.
    12. Arsić, Milojko & Mladenović, Zorica & Nojković, Aleksandra, 2022. "Macroeconomic performance of inflation targeting in European and Asian emerging economies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 675-700.
    13. Ma, Yong & Lv, Lin, 2022. "Money, debt, and the effects of fiscal stimulus," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 152-178.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation targeting; Exchange rate; Indeterminacy; Taylor principle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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