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Macroeconomic performance of inflation targeting in European and Asian emerging economies

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  • Arsić, Milojko
  • Mladenović, Zorica
  • Nojković, Aleksandra

Abstract

The macroeconomic performance resulting from adopting an inflation targeting policy in emerging economies of Europe and Central Asia are examined. The research includes 26 countries in the period 1997–2019, with a special focus on the period 2008–2019. Our econometric analysis consists of two approaches: dynamic panel modeling and propensity score matching. The results suggest that macroeconomic performance has improved due to the inflation targeting monetary framework. We find that a policy of inflation targeting has been effective in reducing the inflation rate, inflation volatility, and GDP volatility. The results are particularly robust for the subperiod that started in 2008. Econometric results suggest that inflation targeting policy did not affect inflation persistence or GDP growth. Our results suggest that inflation targeting improves the macroeconomic performance of developing countries even when they only partially meet the standard requirements for its implementation.

Suggested Citation

  • Arsić, Milojko & Mladenović, Zorica & Nojković, Aleksandra, 2022. "Macroeconomic performance of inflation targeting in European and Asian emerging economies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 675-700.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:44:y:2022:i:3:p:675-700
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2022.06.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Shah, Sayar Ahmad & Garg, Bhavesh, 2023. "Identifying efficient policy mix under different targeting regimes: A tale of two crises," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 975-994.
    2. Yegnanew A. Shiferaw, 2023. "An Understanding of How GDP, Unemployment and Inflation Interact and Change across Time and Frequency," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-15, April.
    3. Mirza, Nawazish & Naqvi, Bushra & Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Boubaker, Sabri, 2023. "Exchange rate pass-through and inflation targeting regime under energy price shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    4. Mishra, Akanksha & Dubey, Amlendu, 2022. "Inflation targeting and its spillover effects on financial stability in emerging market economies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(6), pages 1198-1218.
    5. Petrevski, Goran, 2023. "Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," EconStor Preprints 271122, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    6. Petrevski, Goran, 2023. "Determinants of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of Empirical Literature," EconStor Preprints 271121, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    7. Goran Petrevski, 2023. "Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," Papers 2305.17474, arXiv.org.
    8. Koirala, Niraj P. & Nyiwul, Linus, 2023. "Inflation volatility: A Bayesian approach," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 185-201.
    9. Victoria P. Litvinets, 2023. "Inflation Targeting and Economic Growth in Developed and Developing Countries: Evaluation of the Policy Effectiveness Using CS-ARDL Approach," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 22(4), pages 814-833.
    10. Gabriel Rodríguez & Luis Surco, 2024. "Modeling the trend, persistence, and volatility of inflation in Pacific Alliance countries: an empirical application using a model with inflation bands," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2024-533, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation targeting; Monetary policy; Emerging economies; Dynamic panel model; Propensity score matching;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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