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Performance of inflation targeting in retrospect

Author

Listed:
  • Nezir Kose

    (Gazi University)

  • Yeliz Yalcin

    (Gazi University)

  • Eray Yucel

    (Ozyegin University)

Abstract

Both inflation and inflation expectations declined considerably in the inflation targeting countries during the past two decades. The questions of whether this decline has actually been an outcome of inflation targeting solely and whether inflation targeting has been successful in stabilizing other macroeconomic variables though remain. This study considers these questions on the basis of 16 inflation targeting countries and 21 non-targeting ones using a difference-in-difference approach. With regard to the baseline period of 1996–1999 during which neither of the groups was implementing inflation targeting, a difference-in-difference approach was employed to assess the effects of inflation targeting on inflation, output growth, real exchange rates, inflation volatility and real exchange rate volatility during moving 4-year periods between 2007 and 2015. Our estimates suggest that inflation targeting was superior in terms of harnessing inflation as well as inflation volatility. In terms of economic growth, however, inflation targeting seems to be neutral and in terms of real exchange rates it seems not to be stabilizing, if not de-stabilizing. A hybrid version of inflation targeting, namely the conventional inflation targeting augmented by an improved capacity to deliver macro-prudence as in the post-Lehman economic climate, can therefore be viewed as the best available policy alternative for the upcoming decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Nezir Kose & Yeliz Yalcin & Eray Yucel, 2018. "Performance of inflation targeting in retrospect," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(1), pages 197-213, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:empiri:v:45:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10663-016-9357-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10663-016-9357-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Goran Petrevski, 2023. "Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," Papers 2305.17474, arXiv.org.
    2. Bruno Ferreira Frascaroli & Wellington Charles Lacerda Nobrega, 2019. "Inflation Targeting and Inflation Risk in Latin America," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(11), pages 2389-2408, September.
    3. Petrevski, Goran, 2023. "Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," EconStor Preprints 271122, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    4. Amaia Altuzarra & Ricardo Bustillo & Carlos Rodríguez, 2022. "Does the monetary policy regime matter in the effect of credit on growth?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 341-374, December.
    5. Arsić, Milojko & Mladenović, Zorica & Nojković, Aleksandra, 2022. "Macroeconomic performance of inflation targeting in European and Asian emerging economies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 675-700.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation targeting; Difference-in-difference method; Monetary policy; Volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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