IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecanpo/v78y2023icp975-994.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Identifying efficient policy mix under different targeting regimes: A tale of two crises

Author

Listed:
  • Shah, Sayar Ahmad
  • Garg, Bhavesh

Abstract

We examine the influence of demand shock, supply shock and the monetary policy shock on macroeconomic variables using the New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium framework. Our study tries to identify the efficient monetary policy mix as an antidote to the prevailing economic fragilities that originated due to the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical conflict in case of India and China. Under both simulated and Bayesian analysis, our findings revealed the inflationary effect of demand and supply shock with a target-oriented monetary policy under sticky prices as the efficient policy tool to counter these effects. The macroeconomic projections depicted the favourable influence of output due to active intervention of target-oriented monetary policy in both these economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Shah, Sayar Ahmad & Garg, Bhavesh, 2023. "Identifying efficient policy mix under different targeting regimes: A tale of two crises," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 975-994.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:78:y:2023:i:c:p:975-994
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2023.04.019
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0313592623000693
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eap.2023.04.019?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2006. "How good is what you've got? DSGE-VAR as a toolkit for evaluating DSGE models," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 91(Q 2), pages 21-37.
    2. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models—Rejoinder," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 211-219.
    3. Jayati Ghosh, 2020. "A critique of the Indian government’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 47(3), pages 519-530, September.
    4. Del Negro, Marco & Schorfheide, Frank, 2008. "Forming priors for DSGE models (and how it affects the assessment of nominal rigidities)," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1191-1208, October.
    5. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    6. Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai & Gabriel P. Mihalache, 2020. "Deadly Debt Crises: COVID-19 in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 27275, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. K.P. Prabheesh & Bhavesh Garg & Rakesh Padhan, 2020. "Time-varying dependence between stock markets and oil prices during COVID-19: The case of net oil-exporting countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(3), pages 2408-2418.
    8. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    9. Frank Schorfheide, 2000. "Loss function-based evaluation of DSGE models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 645-670.
    10. Del Negro, Marco & Schorfheide, Frank & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2007. "On the Fit of New Keynesian Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 123-143, April.
    11. Haroon, Omair & Rizvi, Syed Aun R., 2020. "COVID-19: Media coverage and financial markets behavior—A sectoral inquiry," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    12. Karan Rai & Bhavesh Garg, 2022. "Dynamic correlations and volatility spillovers between stock price and exchange rate in BRIICS economies: evidence from the COVID-19 outbreak period," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(8), pages 738-745, May.
    13. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 113-172.
    14. Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & George Perendia & Bo Yang, 2012. "Endogenous Persistence in an estimated DSGE Model Under Imperfect Information," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(565), pages 1287-1312, December.
    15. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    16. Meng Qin & Xiuyan Liu & Xiaoxue Zhou, 2020. "COVID-19 Shock and Global Value Chains: Is There a Substitute for China?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(15), pages 3588-3598, December.
    17. Abel Brodeur & David Gray & Anik Islam & Suraiya Bhuiyan, 2021. "A literature review of the economics of COVID‐19," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 1007-1044, September.
    18. Xinping Zhang & Yimeng Zhang & Yunchan Zhu, 2021. "COVID-19 Pandemic, Sustainability of Macroeconomy, and Choice of Monetary Policy Targets: A NK-DSGE Analysis Based on China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-20, March.
    19. Goyal, Ashima, 2011. "A general equilibrium open economy model for emerging markets: Monetary policy with a dualistic labor market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1392-1404, May.
    20. Usman W Chohan, 2022. "The return of Keynesianism? Exploring path dependency and ideational change in post-covid fiscal policy [Racial, economic, and health inequality and COVID-19 infection in the United States]," Policy and Society, Darryl S. Jarvis and M. Ramesh, vol. 41(1), pages 68-82.
    21. Chowdhury, Kushal Banik & Garg, Bhavesh, 2023. "Fresh evidence on the oil-stock interactions under heterogeneous market conditions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    22. Alessandro Rebucci & Jonathan S. Hartley & Daniel Jiménez, 2022. "An Event Study of COVID-19 Central Bank Quantitative Easing in Advanced and Emerging Economies," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran: Prediction and Macro Modeling, volume 43, pages 291-322, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    23. Xiao, Bowen & Fan, Ying & Guo, Xiaodan, 2018. "Exploring the macroeconomic fluctuations under different environmental policies in China: A DSGE approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 439-456.
    24. Michael Woodford, 2012. "Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability," NBER Working Papers 17967, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Banerjee, Shesadri & Basu, Parantap, 2019. "Technology Shocks And Business Cycles In India," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(5), pages 1721-1756, July.
    26. Can, Ufuk & Can, Zeynep Gizem & Bocuoglu, Mehmet Emin & Dogru, Muhammed Erkam, 2021. "The effectiveness of the post-Covid-19 recovery policies: Evidence from a simulated DSGE model for Turkey," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 694-708.
    27. Shesadri Banerjee & Parantap Basu & Chetan Ghate, 2020. "A Monetary Business Cycle Model For India," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(3), pages 1362-1386, July.
    28. Aharon, David Y. & Qadan, Mahmoud, 2022. "Infection, invasion, and inflation: Recent lessons," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    29. Padhan, Rakesh & Prabheesh, K.P., 2021. "The economics of COVID-19 pandemic: A survey," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 220-237.
    30. Shah, Sayar Ahmad & Garg, Bhavesh, 2023. "Testing policy effectiveness during COVID-19: An NK-DSGE analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    31. Zaremba, Adam & Kizys, Renatas & Aharon, David Y. & Umar, Zaghum, 2022. "Term spreads and the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from international sovereign bond markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    32. K.P. Prabheesh & Sanjiv Kumar, 2021. "The Dynamics of Oil Prices, Exchange Rates, and the Stock Market Under COVID-19 Uncertainty - Evidence From India," Energy RESEARCH LETTERS, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 2(3), pages 1-6.
    33. Sène, Babacar & Mbengue, Mohamed Lamine & Allaya, Mouhamad M., 2021. "Overshooting of sovereign emerging eurobond yields in the context of COVID-19," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    34. Simon J. Evenett, 2020. "Chinese whispers: COVID-19, global supply chains in essential goods, and public policy," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 3(4), pages 408-429, December.
    35. repec:ind:igowpp:2018-005 is not listed on IDEAS
    36. Iyke, Bernard Njindan & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2022. "Exchange rate return predictability in times of geopolitical risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    37. Mr. Magnus Saxegaard & Rahul Anand & Mr. Shanaka J Peiris, 2010. "An Estimated Model with Macrofinancial Linkages for India," IMF Working Papers 2010/021, International Monetary Fund.
    38. Najib Khan, 2022. "Does Inflation Targeting Really Promote Economic Growth?," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 564-584, July.
    39. Arsić, Milojko & Mladenović, Zorica & Nojković, Aleksandra, 2022. "Macroeconomic performance of inflation targeting in European and Asian emerging economies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 675-700.
    40. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    41. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
    42. Cheng, Manqing, 2022. "The Ukraine Crisis: Causes, Conundrum and Consequences," OSF Preprints xdg6n, Center for Open Science.
    43. Ashima Goyal, 2022. "Flexible inflation targeting: Concepts and application in India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2022-003, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    44. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Bernard Njindan Iyke & Susan Sunila Sharma, 2021. "New Measures of the COVID-19 Pandemic - A New Time-Series Dataset," Asian Economics Letters, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 2(2), pages 1-13.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shah, Sayar Ahmad & Garg, Bhavesh, 2023. "Testing policy effectiveness during COVID-19: An NK-DSGE analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    2. Del Negro, Marco & Schorfheide, Frank, 2008. "Forming priors for DSGE models (and how it affects the assessment of nominal rigidities)," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1191-1208, October.
    3. Stefano Grassi & Marco Lorusso & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2021. "Adaptive Importance Sampling for DSGE Models," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS84, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    4. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2009. "Monetary Policy Analysis with Potentially Misspecified Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1415-1450, September.
    5. Schorfheide, Frank & Sill, Keith & Kryshko, Maxym, 2010. "DSGE model-based forecasting of non-modelled variables," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 348-373, April.
    6. Adnan Haider Bukhari & Safdar Ullah Khan, 2008. "A Small Open Economy DSGE Model for Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 963-1008.
    7. Tatiana Kirsanova & Stephanus le Roux, 2013. "Commitment vs. Discretion in the UK: An Empirical Investigation of the Monetary and Fiscal Policy Regime," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(4), pages 99-152, December.
    8. Benchimol, Jonathan & Bounader, Lahcen, 2023. "Optimal monetary policy under bounded rationality," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    9. Chatelain, Jean-Bernard & Ralf, Kirsten, 2018. "Publish and Perish: Creative Destruction and Macroeconomic Theory," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 46(2), pages 65-101.
    10. Coenen, Günter & Straub, Roland & Trabandt, Mathias, 2013. "Gauging the effects of fiscal stimulus packages in the euro area," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 367-386.
    11. Barthélemy, Jean & Clerc, Laurent & Marx, Magali, 2011. "A two-pillar DSGE monetary policy model for the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1303-1316, May.
    12. Warne, Anders & Coenen, Günter & Christoffel, Kai, 2010. "Forecasting with DSGE models," Working Paper Series 1185, European Central Bank.
    13. Hilde Bjørnland & Kai Leitemo & Junior Maih, 2011. "Estimating the natural rates in a simple New Keynesian framework," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 755-777, May.
    14. Jarkko P. Jääskelä & Kristoffer Nimark, 2011. "A Medium‐Scale New Keynesian Open Economy Model of Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 87(276), pages 11-36, March.
    15. Ashima Goyal & Abhishek Kumar, 2020. "A DSGE Model-Based Analysis of the Indian Slowdown," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(01), pages 1-38, April.
    16. Ma, Yong, 2016. "Nonlinear monetary policy and macroeconomic stabilization in emerging market economies: Evidence from China," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 461-480.
    17. Marco Di Pietro & Enrico Saltari, 2018. "Economic Fluctuations in the U.S. and Euro Area: Quantifying the Contribution of Technical Change," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 85(1), pages 203-216, July.
    18. Özer Karagedikli & Troy Matheson & Christie Smith & Shaun P. Vahey, 2010. "RBCs AND DSGEs: THE COMPUTATIONAL APPROACH TO BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY AND EVIDENCE," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 113-136, February.
    19. Pelin Ilbas, 2008. "Estimation of monetary policy preferences in a forward-looking model : a Bayesian approach," Working Paper Research 129, National Bank of Belgium.
    20. Andrea Ajello, 2016. "Financial Intermediation, Investment Dynamics, and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(8), pages 2256-2303, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; NK-DSGE; Monetary policy; Inflation targeting; Geopolitical conflict;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:78:y:2023:i:c:p:975-994. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/economic-analysis-and-policy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.